NHP Stock Analysis: National Healthcare | NASDAQ
REIT - Healthcare Facilities | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.131m USD | 12M Return: 22.1% | US42226B5012 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 12.0M
Rev. Trend: -31.4%
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 0.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
National Healthcare Properties, Inc. (NHP) is a U.S.-domiciled real estate investment trust (REIT) that acquires, owns, and manages a diversified portfolio of healthcare-related real estate concentrated in two segments: outpatient medical facilities (OMFs) and senior housing operating properties (SHOPs). As of September 30, 2025, the company held 174 properties across 30 states, encompassing 7.3 million rentable square feet, with substantially all of its operations conducted through its operating partnership (OP) and wholly owned subsidiaries, including taxable REIT subsidiaries (TRS).
NHP completed the internalization of its management on September 27, 2024, bringing previously outsourced functions from its former advisor, Healthcare Trust Advisors, LLC, and property manager, Healthcare Trust Properties, LLC, in-house. For its SHOP segment, the company utilizes the REIT Investment Diversification and Empowerment Act (RIDEA) structure, which allows the REIT to lease qualified healthcare properties to TRSs operated by eligible independent contractors, enabling NHP to capture a share of property operating income in addition to base rent. As of September 30, 2025, the company owned 40 SHOPs operated by four eligible independent contractors across 39 properties, with the portfolio entirely U.S.-based.
Healthcare REITs like NHP benefit from long-term demographic tailwinds, including an aging U.S. population and rising demand for outpatient care, which tends to support stable occupancy and rental income. The RIDEA operating model, in particular, is commonly used by healthcare REITs to obtain greater economic exposure to senior housing operations than a traditional triple-net lease structure would provide.
- SHOP segment occupancy recovery accelerates NOI growth
- OMF rental income supported by lease escalators and renewals
- Interest rate volatility pressures small-cap healthcare REIT valuations
| Net Income: -44.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.25% < 20% (prev -74.11%; Δ 73.87% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 50.7m > Net Income -44.9m |
| Net Debt (571.4m) to EBITDA (85.2m): 6.71 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.00 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (61.6m) vs 12m ago 117.7% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 27.53% > 18% (prev 37.41%; Δ -9.87% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 18.44% > 50% (prev 20.11%; Δ -1.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.23 > 6 (EBIT TTM 13.6m / Interest Expense TTM 58.3m) |
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 331.5m - Total Current Liabilities 332.3m) / Total Assets 1.98b |
| B: -0.99 (Retained Earnings -1.95b / Total Assets 1.98b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 13.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.87b) |
| D: 1.15 (Book Value of Equity 1.05b / Total Liabilities 919.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.97 = D |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 29.1m/29.6m, Revenue 344.3m/353.8m) |
| GMI: 1.36 (GM 37.41% / 27.53%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.83 / AQ_t-1 0.92) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 344.3m / 353.8m) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI -44.9m - CFO 50.7m) / TA 1.98b) |
| Beneish M = -2.78 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 15.11 with a total of 560,297 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.83%, over one month by -5.80%, over three months by -2.41% and over the past year by +22.07%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.20 (which is 6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
National Healthcare has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.88. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NHP.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19.1 | 26.7% |
P/S = 3.284
P/B = 1.1184
Revenue TTM = 344.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 13.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 85.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 848.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 332.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 873.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 12.8m
Net Debt = 571.4m USD (calculated: Debt 873.8m - CCE 302.4m)
Enterprise Value = 1.70b USD (1.13b + Debt 873.8m - CCE 302.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.23 (Ebit TTM 13.6m / Interest Expense TTM 58.3m)
EV/FCF = 71.58x (Enterprise Value 1.70b / FCF TTM 23.8m)
FCF Yield = 1.40% (FCF TTM 23.8m / Enterprise Value 1.70b)
FCF Margin = 6.91% (FCF TTM 23.8m / Revenue TTM 344.3m)
Net Margin = -13.04% (Net Income TTM -44.9m / Revenue TTM 344.3m)
Gross Margin = 27.53% ((Revenue TTM 344.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 249.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -2.53% (prev 38.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 1.70b / Total Assets 1.98b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.67% (Interest Expense 58.3m / Debt 873.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 10.7m (EBIT 13.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.00 (Total Current Assets 331.5m / Total Current Liabilities 332.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.83 (Debt 873.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.05b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.71 (Net Debt 571.4m / EBITDA 85.2m)
Debt / FCF = 24.03 (Net Debt 571.4m / FCF TTM 23.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 718.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.41% (Net Income -44.9m / Total Assets 1.98b)
RoE = -6.25% (Net Income TTM -44.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 718.4m)
RoCE = 0.87% (EBIT 13.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 718.4m + L.T.Debt 848.2m))
RoIC = 0.55% (NOPAT 10.7m / Invested Capital 1.96b)
WACC = 5.71% (E(1.13b)/V(2.00b) * Re(6.04%) + D(873.8m)/V(2.00b) * Rd(6.67%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 61.34 | Cagr: 67.99%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈23.8m ; Y1≈23.9m ; Y5≈25.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 393.4m - Net Debt 571.4m = -178.0m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -31.35 | Revenue CAGR: -0.53% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=+8.86% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=+408.25% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=+0.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.01 | Chg30d=-114.29% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-104.9% | GrowthRev=+19.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=1, down=0)