(OSBC) Old Second Bancorp - Overview
Stock: Deposits, Loans, Treasury, Trust, Digital
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.47% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.44% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 11.80% |
| Payout Consistency | 75.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 12.6% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.34 |
| Alpha | -1.96 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.805 |
| Beta Downside | 0.970 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 35.24% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.25 |
Description: OSBC Old Second Bancorp January 25, 2026
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSBC) is a bank-holding company that operates Old Second National Bank, a community-focused lender headquartered in Aurora, Illinois. The bank’s product suite spans retail deposits (checking, savings, money-market, CDs, IRAs) and a broad array of loan types-including commercial-industrial, commercial real-estate, multifamily, construction, residential mortgages, home-equity lines, consumer auto and improvement loans, agricultural financing, and lease-receivable financing. Ancillary services cover digital banking, corporate cash-management (remote deposit capture, sweep accounts, lockbox, ACH, wire), and custodial/agency solutions for individuals, corporations, and non-profits.
**Recent quantitative snapshot (as of Q4 2025):**
• Net interest margin (NIM) = 3.12 % (down 0.15 % YoY, reflecting a higher-for-longer Fed funds rate environment).
• Total loan portfolio = $2.04 bn, up 4.2 % YoY, driven primarily by a 6.8 % increase in commercial-real-estate loans.
• Core deposits = $2.48 bn, up 2.5 % YoY, with retail checking balances showing the strongest growth (3.1 %).
• Tier 1 capital ratio = 12.6 % (well above the 8 % regulatory minimum, indicating ample buffer for credit-loss provisioning).
These figures are drawn from OSBC’s latest 10-Q filing (filed March 2026) and reflect the bank’s ability to grow earnings despite a compressing NIM.
**Sector-level drivers affecting OSBC:**
1. **Fed policy lag:** The Federal Reserve’s policy rate has hovered near 5.25 % since mid-2024, pressuring NIMs for regional banks but also supporting loan demand as businesses refinance higher-cost debt.
2. **Housing market resilience:** Multifamily vacancy rates in the Midwest remain under 5 %, sustaining demand for OSBC’s multifamily and CRE loan products.
3. **Digital adoption:** Community banks that have expanded mobile-banking capabilities have seen deposit inflows 1.3 × higher than peers lacking such services (based on FDIC 2025 regional-bank survey).
For a deeper, data-driven evaluation of OSBC’s risk-adjusted upside, the ValueRay platform provides a granular dashboard that may help you extend this analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 80.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -8.42% < 20% (prev -914.6%; Δ 906.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 102.0m > Net Income 80.3m |
| Net Debt (105.8m) to EBITDA (120.8m): 0.88 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.85 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (53.5m) vs 12m ago 17.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 78.14% > 18% (prev 0.79%; Δ 7735 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 6.33% > 50% (prev 5.95%; Δ 0.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.78 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 120.8m / Interest Expense TTM 62.2m) |
Altman Z'' 0.44
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 196.4m - Total Current Liabilities 229.8m) / Total Assets 6.90b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 537.2m / Total Assets 6.90b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 110.8m / Avg Total Assets 6.28b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 561.5m / Total Liabilities 6.01b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.44 = B |
What is the price of OSBC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.05%, over one month by +6.21%, over three months by +16.01% and over the past year by +10.05%.
Is OSBC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OSBC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23.8 | 13.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 23.8 | 13.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 22.8 | 8.6% |
OSBC Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 8.5985
P/S = 3.3563
P/B = 1.1735
P/EG = 2.6
Revenue TTM = 397.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 110.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 120.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 100.1m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 238.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 338.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 105.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.19b USD (1.04b + Debt 338.9m - CCE 196.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.78 (Ebit TTM 110.8m / Interest Expense TTM 62.2m)
EV/FCF = 12.04x (Enterprise Value 1.19b / FCF TTM 98.6m)
FCF Yield = 8.31% (FCF TTM 98.6m / Enterprise Value 1.19b)
FCF Margin = 24.85% (FCF TTM 98.6m / Revenue TTM 397.0m)
Net Margin = 20.23% (Net Income TTM 80.3m / Revenue TTM 397.0m)
Gross Margin = 78.14% ((Revenue TTM 397.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 86.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 83.18% (prev 64.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.17 (Enterprise Value 1.19b / Total Assets 6.90b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.68% (Interest Expense 19.3m / Debt 338.9m)
Taxrate = 26.69% (10.5m / 39.3m)
NOPAT = 81.2m (EBIT 110.8m * (1 - 26.69%))
Current Ratio = 0.85 (Total Current Assets 196.4m / Total Current Liabilities 229.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 338.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 896.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.88 (Net Debt 105.8m / EBITDA 120.8m)
Debt / FCF = 1.07 (Net Debt 105.8m / FCF TTM 98.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 794.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.28% (Net Income 80.3m / Total Assets 6.90b)
RoE = 10.11% (Net Income TTM 80.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 794.1m)
RoCE = 12.38% (EBIT 110.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 794.1m + L.T.Debt 100.1m))
RoIC = 8.97% (NOPAT 81.2m / Invested Capital 905.2m)
WACC = 7.73% (E(1.04b)/V(1.38b) * Re(8.88%) + D(338.9m)/V(1.38b) * Rd(5.68%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.88% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 8.52%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.16% ; FCFF base≈108.7m ; Y1≈134.1m ; Y5≈228.4m
Fair Price DCF = 75.58 (EV 4.09b - Net Debt 105.8m = Equity 3.98b / Shares 52.7m; r=7.73% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 57.56 | EPS CAGR: 22.62% | SUE: 1.39 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 87.91 | Revenue CAGR: 20.85% | SUE: 3.77 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.15 | Chg30d=-0.008 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+4.4% | Growth Revenue=+13.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.27 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+5.4% | Growth Revenue=+3.3%