OSBC Stock Analysis: Old Second Bancorp | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.206m USD | 12M Return: 38% | US6802771005 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 15.0M
EPS Trend: 56.4%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 92.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSBC) is a bank holding company that operates Old Second National Bank, providing community banking services across the United States. The company generates revenue primarily through net interest income by offering a range of deposit products-including checking, money market, savings, and certificates of deposit-alongside a diversified lending portfolio covering commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate, residential mortgages, home equity lines of credit, consumer loans, and agricultural lending. Beyond core banking, it provides treasury management tools, digital and mobile banking platforms, and wealth-related services such as investment, agency, and custodial offerings. Founded in 1871 and headquartered in Aurora, Illinois, OSBC operates as a small-cap regional bank, a business model that relies on local relationship-based lending, stable deposit funding, and fee-based services to diversify earnings.
- Net interest margin expands as Fed holds rates higher
- Commercial real estate loan portfolio faces credit quality headwinds
- Deposit costs rise amid Chicago suburban banking competition
| Net Income: 111.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.08k% < 20% (prev -1.21k%; Δ 137.1% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 174.6m > Net Income 111.5m |
| Net Debt (-716.7m) to EBITDA (164.2m): -4.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (51.1m) vs 12m ago -4.42% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.80% > 18% (prev 76.97%; Δ 2.83% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 6.24% > 50% (prev 5.26%; Δ 0.97% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 152.9m / Interest Expense TTM 72.4m) |
| A: -0.68 (Total Current Assets 1.13b - Total Current Liabilities 5.76b) / Total Assets 6.79b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 598.3m / Total Assets 6.79b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 152.9m / Avg Total Assets 6.89b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 899.5m / Total Liabilities 5.89b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.87 = D |
As of November 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.10 with a total of 566,113 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.36%, over one month by +1.38%, over three months by -1.05% and over the past year by +37.96%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 23.70 (which is 5.6% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Old Second Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy OSBC.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28 | 11.6% |
P/E Trailing = 11.4019
P/E Forward = 8.5985
P/S = 3.3933
P/B = 1.3731
P/EG = 1.5083
Revenue TTM = 429.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 152.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 164.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 100.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 345.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 415.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -716.7m USD (calculated: Debt 415.0m - CCE 1.13b)
Enterprise Value = 489.7m USD (1.21b + Debt 415.0m - CCE 1.13b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.11 (Ebit TTM 152.9m / Interest Expense TTM 72.4m)
EV/FCF = 2.86x (Enterprise Value 489.7m / FCF TTM 170.9m)
FCF Yield = 34.91% (FCF TTM 170.9m / Enterprise Value 489.7m)
FCF Margin = 39.79% (FCF TTM 170.9m / Revenue TTM 429.6m)
Net Margin = 25.95% (Net Income TTM 111.5m / Revenue TTM 429.6m)
Gross Margin = 79.80% ((Revenue TTM 429.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 86.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.47% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.07 (Enterprise Value 489.7m / Total Assets 6.79b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 17.44% (Interest Expense 72.4m / Debt 415.0m)
Taxrate = 25.63% (38.4m / 149.9m)
NOPAT = 113.7m (EBIT 152.9m * (1 - 25.63%))
Current Ratio = 0.20 (Total Current Assets 1.13b / Total Current Liabilities 5.76b)
Debt / Equity = 0.46 (Debt 415.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 899.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.37 (Net Debt -716.7m / EBITDA 164.2m)
Debt / FCF = -4.19 (Net Debt -716.7m / FCF TTM 170.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 898.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.62% (Net Income 111.5m / Total Assets 6.79b)
RoE = 12.41% (Net Income TTM 111.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 898.1m)
RoCE = 15.32% (EBIT 152.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 898.1m + L.T.Debt 100.2m))
RoIC = 8.40% (NOPAT 113.7m / Invested Capital 1.35b)
WACC = 9.00% (E(1.21b)/V(1.62b) * Re(7.64%) + D(415.0m)/V(1.62b) * Rd(17.44%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 7.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 79.68 | Cagr: 5.15%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.88% ; FCFF base≈142.0m ; Y1≈162.8m ; Y5≈239.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 79.90 (EV 3.23b - Net Debt -716.7m = Equity 3.95b / Shares 49.4m; r=9.00% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 56.44 | EPS CAGR: 3.66% | SUE: -1.31 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 92.85 | Revenue CAGR: 12.82% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=-3.41% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.17 | Chg30d=-1.81% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=+5.2% | GrowthRev=+13.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.37 | Chg30d=-1.59% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+9.2% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -74% (up=1, down=15)