RCEL Stock Analysis: Avita Medical | NASDAQ

Cell Harvesting, Biosynthetic Matrices, Collagen Matrices, Burn Therapy

Total Rating 45

Safety 38

Buy Signal 1.59

Medical Devices
Industry Rotation: -3.9

Market Cap: 319M
Avg Turnover: 3.61M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility86.1%

VaR 5^th Pctl11.9%

VaR vs Median-12.2%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.27

Rel. Str. IBD99.2

Rel. Str. Peer Group91

Character TTM

Beta0.866

Beta Downside0.796

Hurst Exponent0.506

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD82.14%

CAGR/Max DD-0.15

CAGR/Mean DD-0.23

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: 1.13
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 20.87%
Rev. Trend: 93.6%

Last SUE: -0.47
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Negative Equity With Losses

Strong Share Dilution

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

Supp Ema8

Rs Leader

Idiosyncratic Leader

Confidence

Tailwind

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +3.1% 8

Feb +1.4% 20

Mar -5.3% 8

Apr +3.9% 18

May -2.2% 16

Jun -3.6% 33

Jul +7.8% 25

Aug -2.7% 8

Sep +1.6% 22

Oct -12.9% 29

Nov +3.6% 27

Dec -2.4% 25

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: RCEL Avita Medical

AVITA Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ: RCEL) is a Valencia, California-based therapeutic acute wound care company that develops and commercializes cell-based technologies for treating burns, full-thickness skin defects, and stable depigmented vitiligo lesions. Its lead product, the RECELL System, is an autologous cell harvesting device that uses a small sample of the patients own skin to prepare a cell suspension for application at the wound site. The company also distributes complementary wound matrix products, including the biosynthetic PermeaDerm and the collagen-based Cohealyx, and sells to hospitals, treatment centers, and distributors across the United States, Japan, the European Union, Australia, and the United Kingdom.

The RECELL franchise spans several device variants designed for different wound sizes, ranging from a mini version for smaller wounds up to 480 cm² to standard and ease-of-use versions capable of treating areas up to 1,920 cm². The company was formerly known as AVITA Therapeutics, Inc. and adopted its current name in December 2020.

As a small-cap biotechnology company, AVITA operates in a regulated medical device and cell-therapy segment where commercial growth depends on obtaining and maintaining regulatory clearances, securing reimbursement coverage, and driving adoption among burn specialists and wound care clinicians. The autologous cell-harvesting model differentiates RECELL from conventional skin grafting by using a much smaller donor skin sample, which is a key point of clinical and economic value for hospital customers.

Headlines to Watch Out For

RECELL System sales accelerate in US burn centers
Vitiligo indication approval opens new revenue stream
International expansion in Japan and EU lifts revenue

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0

Net Income: -43.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.49 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 22.93 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -53.31% < 20% (prev -35.19%; Δ -18.13% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.51 > 3% & CFO -24.2m > Net Income -43.1m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 0.41 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (30.7m) vs 12m ago 16.62% < -2%
Gross Margin: 81.56% > 18% (prev 84.28%; Δ -2.72% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 142.8% > 50% (prev 128.8%; Δ 14.01% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -6.97 > 6 (EBIT TTM -37.7m / Interest Expense TTM 5.41m)

Altman Z'' -15.00

A: -0.84 (Total Current Assets 28.4m - Total Current Liabilities 68.7m) / Total Assets 47.8m
B: -8.93 (Retained Earnings -426.7m / Total Assets 47.8m)
C: -0.71 (EBIT TTM -37.7m / Avg Total Assets 53.0m)
D: -0.37 (Book Value of Equity -27.8m / Total Liabilities 75.6m)
Altman-Z'' = -39.82 = D

Beneish M -3.04

DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 9.87m/11.7m, Revenue 75.6m/74.9m)
GMI: 1.03 (GM 84.28% / 81.56%)
AQI: 1.22 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.16)
SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 75.6m / 74.9m)
TATA: -0.39 (NI -43.1m - CFO -24.2m) / TA 47.8m)
Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of RCEL shares?

As of September 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.76 with a total of 542,418 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.61%, over one month by +132.90%, over three months by +156.80% and over the past year by +150.82%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.00 (which is 7.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is RCEL a buy, sell or hold?

Avita Medical has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy RCEL.

StrongBuy: 3
Buy: 0
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the RCEL price?

Analysts Target Price	11.2	3.8%

Avita Medical (RCEL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 01 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 319.2m (319.2m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 10.2881
P/S = 4.2323
P/B = 11.7695
Revenue TTM = 75.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -37.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = -34.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82m USD (estimated: total debt 48.5m - short term 46.7m)
Short Term Debt = 46.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 50.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.82m
Net Debt = 39.2m USD (calculated: Debt 50.3m - CCE 11.1m)
Enterprise Value = 358.3m USD (319.2m + Debt 50.3m - CCE 11.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -6.97 (Ebit TTM -37.7m / Interest Expense TTM 5.41m)
EV/FCF = -15.19x (Enterprise Value 358.3m / FCF TTM -23.6m)
FCF Yield = -6.58% (FCF TTM -23.6m / Enterprise Value 358.3m)
FCF Margin = -31.20% (FCF TTM -23.6m / Revenue TTM 75.6m)
Net Margin = -56.96% (Net Income TTM -43.1m / Revenue TTM 75.6m)
Gross Margin = 81.56% ((Revenue TTM 75.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.87% (prev 81.70%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.50 (Enterprise Value 358.3m / Total Assets 47.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.74% (Interest Expense 5.41m / Debt 50.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -29.8m (EBIT -37.7m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.41 (Total Current Assets 28.4m / Total Current Liabilities 68.7m)
Debt / Equity = -1.81 (negative equity) (Debt 50.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -27.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.14 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 39.2m / EBITDA -34.4m)
Debt / FCF = -1.66 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 39.2m / FCF TTM -23.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -18.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -81.36% (Net Income -43.1m / Total Assets 47.8m)
RoE = 231.9% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -43.1m / Total Stockholder Equity -18.6m)
RoCE = 224.8% (negative capital employed) (EBIT -37.7m / Capital Employed (Equity -18.6m + L.T.Debt 1.82m))
RoIC = -135.7% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -29.8m / Invested Capital 21.9m)
WACC = 8.96% (E(319.2m)/V(369.5m) * Re(9.03%) + D(50.3m)/V(369.5m) * Rd(10.74%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 90.95 | Cagr: 8.42%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -23.6m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.13 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 93.60 | Revenue CAGR: 20.87% | SUE: -0.47 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.29 | Chg30d=+16.60% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.32 | Chg30d=+9.39% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+46.3% | GrowthRev=+22.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.60 | Chg30d=+28.75% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+54.2% | GrowthRev=+25.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=6, down=0)