(TTD) Trade Desk - Ratings and Ratios
Platform, Data, Measurement, Optimization
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 57.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 80.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.69% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.20 |
| Alpha | -89.74 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.08 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.638 |
| Beta | 1.520 |
| Beta Downside | 2.110 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 72.51% |
| Mean DD | 22.11% |
| Median DD | 13.04% |
Description: TTD Trade Desk October 14, 2025
The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) is a U.S.-based technology firm that provides a self-service, cloud-native platform enabling agencies, advertisers, and their service providers to plan, execute, optimize, and measure data-driven digital advertising across a wide array of formats-including video, display, audio, digital-out-of-home, native, and social-and devices such as computers, mobiles, TVs, and streaming boxes. In addition to the core buying engine, the company offers data-enrichment and value-added services to enhance campaign performance. Founded in 2009 and headquartered in Ventura, California, TTD operates globally and is classified under the GICS sub-industry “Application Software.”
Recent quarterly filings show Q4 2023 revenue of approximately $1.04 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of roughly 12 % and a gross margin near 80 %, underscoring the high-margin nature of its software-as-a-service model. The platform’s share of the programmatic advertising market is estimated at 15 %, driven largely by rapid growth in connected-TV (CTV) spend, which now accounts for over 30 % of total ad dollars on The Trade Desk’s platform. A broader sector driver is the continued expansion of digital ad spend, projected to grow ~8 % annually, though macro-economic pressures such as higher interest rates could temper advertiser budgets in the near term.
For a deeper, data-rich perspective on how these dynamics translate into valuation metrics, consider exploring ValueRay’s analyst tools.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (438.6m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 167.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.11 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.05pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 76.17% (prev 96.26%; Δ -20.09pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 880.5m > Net Income 438.6m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-277.2m) to EBITDA (654.0m) ratio: -0.42 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.71 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (493.0m) change vs 12m ago -1.91% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 78.81% (prev 81.06%; Δ -2.25pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 48.76% (prev 41.95%; Δ 6.81pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -8.53 (EBITDA TTM 654.0m / Interest Expense TTM -64.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.67
| (A) 0.36 = (Total Current Assets 5.12b - Total Current Liabilities 2.99b) / Total Assets 5.94b |
| (B) -0.06 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -364.4m / Total Assets 5.94b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 546.1m / Avg Total Assets 5.72b |
| (D) -0.11 = Book Value of Equity -364.4m / Total Liabilities 3.34b |
| Total Rating: 2.67 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.84
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.78% |
| 3. FCF Margin 24.43% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.14 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.42 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.31)% |
| 7. RoE 16.00% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 92.54% |
| 9. EPS Trend 58.96% |
What is the price of TTD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.20%, over one month by -18.67%, over three months by -26.26% and over the past year by -70.44%.
Is TTD a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 23
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 11
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the TTD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 62.3 | 56% |
| Analysts Target Price | 62.3 | 56% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 35.6 | -10.9% |
TTD Fundamental Data Overview November 29, 2025
P/E Trailing = 44.4432
P/E Forward = 29.1545
P/S = 6.8527
P/B = 7.2722
P/EG = 1.1679
Beta = 1.05
Revenue TTM = 2.79b USD
EBIT TTM = 546.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 654.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 376.0m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 73.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 376.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -277.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 18.05b USD (19.12b + Debt 376.0m - CCE 1.45b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -8.53 (Ebit TTM 546.1m / Interest Expense TTM -64.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.78% (FCF TTM 681.8m / Enterprise Value 18.05b)
FCF Margin = 24.43% (FCF TTM 681.8m / Revenue TTM 2.79b)
Net Margin = 15.72% (Net Income TTM 438.6m / Revenue TTM 2.79b)
Gross Margin = 78.81% ((Revenue TTM 2.79b - Cost of Revenue TTM 591.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.07% (prev 78.25%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.04 (Enterprise Value 18.05b / Total Assets 5.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.73% (Interest Expense 36.6m / Debt 376.0m)
Taxrate = 35.64% (64.0m / 179.5m)
NOPAT = 351.5m (EBIT 546.1m * (1 - 35.64%))
Current Ratio = 1.71 (Total Current Assets 5.12b / Total Current Liabilities 2.99b)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 376.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.60b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.42 (Net Debt -277.2m / EBITDA 654.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.41 (Net Debt -277.2m / FCF TTM 681.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.74b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.38% (Net Income 438.6m / Total Assets 5.94b)
RoE = 16.00% (Net Income TTM 438.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.74b)
RoCE = 17.52% (EBIT 546.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.74b + L.T.Debt 376.0m))
RoIC = 12.82% (NOPAT 351.5m / Invested Capital 2.74b)
WACC = 11.52% (E(19.12b)/V(19.50b) * Re(11.62%) + D(376.0m)/V(19.50b) * Rd(9.73%) * (1-Tc(0.36)))
Discount Rate = 11.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.67%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.19% ; FCFE base≈616.7m ; Y1≈741.2m ; Y5≈1.19b
Fair Price DCF = 26.57 (DCF Value 11.70b / Shares Outstanding 440.3m; 5y FCF grow 21.55% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 58.96 | EPS CAGR: 1.86% | SUE: 0.32 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.54 | Revenue CAGR: 18.15% | SUE: 1.20 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=-0.016 | Revisions Net=-7 | Analysts=17
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.08 | Chg30d=-0.035 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+17.4% | Growth Revenue=+16.1%
Additional Sources for TTD Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle