(CCL) Carnival - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Travel Services | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 33.091m USD | Total Return: 14.9% in 12m
Industry Rotation: -9.1
Avg Turnover: 690M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 92.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Altman Z'' -0.18 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Choppy Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Carnival Corporation (CCL) is a global leisure travel provider operating a multi-brand portfolio that includes Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, and Holland America Line. The company manages four primary segments covering North American and European cruise operations, alongside a Cruise Support and Tour infrastructure that includes proprietary port destinations, hotels, and rail transport. Founded in 1972 and headquartered in Miami, its distribution model relies on a mix of third-party travel agents and direct-to-consumer digital platforms.
The cruise industry is characterized by high capital intensity due to the significant cost of vessel construction and maintenance. As a dominant player in the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry, Carnival utilizes a hub-and-spoke business model where land-based excursions and private islands act as high-margin extensions of the onboard experience. Investors can evaluate these operational margins and debt structures further on ValueRay. This vertical integration allows the company to capture a larger share of total passenger discretionary spending throughout the vacation cycle.
- Elevated fuel prices and maritime carbon emissions regulations increase operational overhead
- Strong occupancy rates and booking volumes drive revenue growth across global brands
- High debt service costs from pandemic-era financing impact net income margins
- Consumer discretionary spending trends dictate demand for premium and luxury cruise segments
- Geopolitical instability in key regions disrupts itinerary planning and increases insurance costs
| Net Income: 3.10b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.70 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -33.72% < 20% (prev -33.83%; Δ 0.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 6.56b > Net Income 3.10b |
| Net Debt (25.18b) to EBITDA (7.23b): 3.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.39b) vs 12m ago 6.34% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.55% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 3.72k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.90% > 50% (prev 52.38%; Δ 1.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.54 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 7.23b / Interest Expense TTM 1.24b) |
| A: -0.18 (Total Current Assets 3.32b - Total Current Liabilities 12.42b) / Total Assets 51.57b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 4.73b / Total Assets 51.57b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 4.40b / Avg Total Assets 50.05b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 3.37b / Total Liabilities 38.52b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.18 = B |
| DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 663.0m/543.0m, Revenue 26.98b/25.43b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 37.55% / 38.25%) |
| AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 26.98b / 25.43b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 3.10b - CFO 6.56b) / TA 51.57b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.63%, over one month by -9.72%, over three months by -18.13% and over the past year by +14.89%.
- StrongBuy: 17
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 34.1 | 30.8% |
P/E Forward = 11.2994
P/S = 1.2266
P/B = 2.8041
P/EG = 1.0847
Revenue TTM = 26.98b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.40b USD
EBITDA TTM = 7.23b USD
Long Term Debt = 23.79b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.67b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 26.61b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 25.18b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 58.27b USD (33.09b + Debt 26.61b - CCE 1.42b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.54 (Ebit TTM 4.40b / Interest Expense TTM 1.24b)
EV/FCF = 19.52x (Enterprise Value 58.27b / FCF TTM 2.99b)
FCF Yield = 5.12% (FCF TTM 2.99b / Enterprise Value 58.27b)
FCF Margin = 11.07% (FCF TTM 2.99b / Revenue TTM 26.98b)
Net Margin = 11.48% (Net Income TTM 3.10b / Revenue TTM 26.98b)
Gross Margin = 37.55% ((Revenue TTM 26.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 16.85b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.11% (prev 26.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.13 (Enterprise Value 58.27b / Total Assets 51.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.09% (Interest Expense 291.0m / Debt 26.61b)
Taxrate = 6.07% (17.0m / 280.0m)
NOPAT = 4.13b (EBIT 4.40b * (1 - 6.07%))
Current Ratio = 0.27 (Total Current Assets 3.32b / Total Current Liabilities 12.42b)
Debt / Equity = 2.04 (Debt 26.61b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 13.03b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.48 (Net Debt 25.18b / EBITDA 7.23b)
Debt / FCF = 8.43 (Net Debt 25.18b / FCF TTM 2.99b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.81b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.19% (Net Income 3.10b / Total Assets 51.57b)
RoE = 26.22% (Net Income TTM 3.10b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.81b)
RoCE = 12.36% (EBIT 4.40b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.81b + L.T.Debt 23.79b))
RoIC = 10.81% (NOPAT 4.13b / Invested Capital 38.23b)
WACC = 7.15% (E(33.09b)/V(59.70b) * Re(12.07%) + D(26.61b)/V(59.70b) * Rd(1.09%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 12.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 67.42 | Cagr: 4.42%
[DCF] Terminal Value 79.47% ; FCFF base≈2.59b ; Y1≈2.21b ; Y5≈1.70b
[DCF] Fair Price = 10.05 (EV 37.64b - Net Debt 25.18b = Equity 12.45b / Shares 1.24b; r=7.15% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -17.88% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.26 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.72 | Revenue CAGR: 14.46% | SUE: 0.50 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-05-31): EPS=0.33 | Chg30d=+1.06% | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=18
EPS next Quarter (2026-08-31): EPS=1.42 | Chg30d=+0.13% | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-11-30): EPS=2.22 | Chg30d=-0.28% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-1.3% | GrowthRev=+4.7%
EPS next Year (2027-11-30): EPS=2.60 | Chg30d=+0.13% | Revisions=+43% | GrowthEPS=+17.2% | GrowthRev=+3.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +43%