CCL Stock Analysis: Carnival | NYSE
Travel Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 32.997m USD | 12M Return: -7.5% | BMG2004J1036 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 588M
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 96.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Carnival Corporation Ltd. is a global leisure travel company specializing in cruise vacations, operating through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. Beyond its core cruise business, the company also operates port destinations and islands and owns hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches, making it a vertically integrated hospitality operator. Its portfolio includes nine major brands-AIDA, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O (Australia), P&O (UK), Princess, and Seabourn-giving it exposure to multiple price points and customer demographics within the consumer discretionary travel sector. Cruises are distributed through travel agents, tour operators, websites, and onboard consultants, reflecting the industrys reliance on both traditional and direct-to-consumer sales channels. Founded in 1972 and headquartered in Miami, Florida, Carnival is a large-cap NYSE-listed company (CCL) within the GICS Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry, benefiting from a duopoly market structure alongside Royal Caribbean Group that defines the global cruise landscape.
- Cruise ticket pricing power drives yield expansion
- Fuel costs and new ship deliveries pressure margins
- Debt paydown accelerates with rising free cash flow
| Net Income: 3.14b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.64 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -32.81% < 20% (prev -28.85%; Δ -3.96% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 6.82b > Net Income 3.14b |
| Net Debt (25.2b) to EBITDA (7.26b): 3.47 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.37b) vs 12m ago -2.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.22% > 18% (prev 39.49%; Δ -5.28% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 54.84% > 50% (prev 51.60%; Δ 3.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.71 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4.37b / Interest Expense TTM 1.18b) |
| A: -0.18 (Total Current Assets 3.42b - Total Current Liabilities 12.5b) / Total Assets 49.8b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 6.71b / Total Assets 49.8b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 4.37b / Avg Total Assets 50.3b) |
| D: 0.40 (Book Value of Equity 14.2b / Total Liabilities 35.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.25 = B |
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 670.0m/651.0m, Revenue 27.6b/26.2b) |
| GMI: 1.15 (GM 39.49% / 34.22%) |
| AQI: 0.66 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 27.6b / 26.2b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 3.14b - CFO 6.82b) / TA 49.8b) |
| Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 26.15 with a total of 14,799,134 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.56%, over one month by +12.72%, over three months by -1.47% and over the past year by -7.45%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 24.30 (which is 7.1% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Carnival has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.46. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CCL.
- StrongBuy: 18
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 33.9 | 29.6% |
P/E Trailing = 10.8106
P/E Forward = 8.4317
P/S = 1.1958
P/B = 2.3026
P/EG = 0.757
Revenue TTM = 27.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.37b USD
EBITDA TTM = 7.26b USD
Long Term Debt = 24.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.20b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 26.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.28b
Net Debt = 25.2b USD (calculated: Debt 26.4b - CCE 1.22b)
Enterprise Value = 58.2b USD (33.0b + Debt 26.4b - CCE 1.22b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.71 (Ebit TTM 4.37b / Interest Expense TTM 1.18b)
EV/FCF = 18.33x (Enterprise Value 58.2b / FCF TTM 3.18b)
FCF Yield = 5.46% (FCF TTM 3.18b / Enterprise Value 58.2b)
FCF Margin = 11.51% (FCF TTM 3.18b / Revenue TTM 27.6b)
Net Margin = 11.37% (Net Income TTM 3.14b / Revenue TTM 27.6b)
Gross Margin = 34.22% ((Revenue TTM 27.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.13% (prev 25.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.17 (Enterprise Value 58.2b / Total Assets 49.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.45% (Interest Expense 1.18b / Debt 26.4b)
Taxrate = 0.83% (16.0m / 1.94b)
NOPAT = 4.33b (EBIT 4.37b * (1 - 0.83%))
Current Ratio = 0.27 (Total Current Assets 3.42b / Total Current Liabilities 12.5b)
Debt / Equity = 1.86 (Debt 26.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 14.2b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.47 (Net Debt 25.2b / EBITDA 7.26b)
Debt / FCF = 7.94 (Net Debt 25.2b / FCF TTM 3.18b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.23% (Net Income 3.14b / Total Assets 49.8b)
RoE = 23.91% (Net Income TTM 3.14b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.1b)
RoCE = 11.75% (EBIT 4.37b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.1b + L.T.Debt 24.0b))
RoIC = 11.30% (NOPAT 4.33b / Invested Capital 38.3b)
WACC = 8.55% (E(33.0b)/V(59.4b) * Re(11.86%) + D(26.4b)/V(59.4b) * Rd(4.45%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 11.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 41.81 | Cagr: 3.32%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.88% ; FCFF base≈3.07b ; Y1≈3.31b ; Y5≈4.05b
[DCF] Fair Price = 25.91 (EV 60.1b - Net Debt 25.2b = Equity 34.8b / Shares 1.34b; r=8.55% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 8.99% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 2.05 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 96.51 | Revenue CAGR: 8.72% | SUE: 0.89 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2027-02-28): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=-42.85% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-11-30): EPS=2.26 | Chg30d=+0.56% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+0.3% | GrowthRev=+4.1%
EPS next Year (2027-11-30): EPS=2.56 | Chg30d=-2.84% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+13.6% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +10% (up=4, down=3)