(CCL) Carnival - Ratings and Ratios
Cruises, Ships, Destinations, Hotels, Tours
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 52.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 79.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.60% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.18 |
| Alpha | -21.87 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.88 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.372 |
| Beta | 1.731 |
| Beta Downside | 1.798 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.85% |
| Mean DD | 14.07% |
| Median DD | 13.13% |
Description: CCL Carnival September 29, 2025
Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE: CCL) is a global cruise operator that delivers leisure travel across North America, Australia, Europe, and other international markets. Its business is organized into four segments-NAA Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour & Other-and it owns a portfolio of brands that includes AIDA, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa, Cunard, Holland America, P&O (Australia & UK), Princess, and Seabourn. Distribution channels span travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, direct-to-consumer websites, and onboard future-cruise consultants. The firm also manages ancillary assets such as ports, hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches. Founded in 1972, Carnival is headquartered in Miami, Florida, and is classified under GICS Sub-Industry “Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.”
Key operating metrics from the most recent fiscal year (2023) show revenue of roughly $20.8 billion, an industry-adjusted occupancy rate of about 85 %, and an average daily fare (ADR) near $210 per passenger-day-both metrics still below pre-COVID-19 peaks but trending upward as consumer confidence recovers. The company carries approximately $25 billion of long-term debt, giving a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of ~3.5×, which is modestly higher than the sector median of ~3.0×. A primary economic driver for Carnival is discretionary consumer spending; a 1 % change in U.S. consumer confidence historically correlates with a ~0.4 % shift in cruise bookings, according to industry research.
Given the fuel-price sensitivity of cruise margins and the ongoing rollout of newer, more fuel-efficient vessels, analysts often model CCL’s free-cash-flow volatility by linking bunker cost exposure to Brent crude price movements-a factor that can swing operating cash flow by ±5 % for a $10 per-barrel price swing.
For a deeper quantitative dive, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst tools to model CCL’s cash-flow sensitivity to fuel price swings and occupancy trends.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (2.64b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.57b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.38pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -28.85% (prev -35.29%; Δ 6.44pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 5.61b > Net Income 2.64b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (26.10b) to EBITDA (6.79b) ratio: 3.84 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.34 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.40b) change vs 12m ago 0.21% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 39.49% (prev 36.95%; Δ 2.55pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 52.63% (prev 49.15%; Δ 3.48pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.87 (EBITDA TTM 6.79b / Interest Expense TTM 1.42b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.07
| (A) -0.15 = (Total Current Assets 3.87b - Total Current Liabilities 11.44b) / Total Assets 49.87b |
| (B) 0.09 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 4.39b / Total Assets 49.87b |
| (C) 0.08 = EBIT TTM 4.07b / Avg Total Assets 49.84b |
| (D) 0.08 = Book Value of Equity 3.05b / Total Liabilities 37.94b |
| Total Rating: -0.07 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 69.67
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.74% |
| 3. FCF Margin 11.11% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.34 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.84 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.53)% |
| 7. RoE 26.18% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 84.53% |
| 9. EPS Trend 76.38% |
What is the price of CCL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.12%, over one month by -10.58%, over three months by -17.27% and over the past year by -0.81%.
Is CCL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 17
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CCL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.8 | 38.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.8 | 38.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 26.6 | 3% |
CCL Fundamental Data Overview November 21, 2025
P/E Trailing = 13.4433
P/E Forward = 10.7759
P/S = 1.3481
P/B = 2.8359
P/EG = 1.41
Beta = 2.527
Revenue TTM = 26.23b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.07b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.79b USD
Long Term Debt = 25.06b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.59b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 27.86b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 26.10b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 61.46b USD (35.36b + Debt 27.86b - CCE 1.76b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.87 (Ebit TTM 4.07b / Interest Expense TTM 1.42b)
FCF Yield = 4.74% (FCF TTM 2.91b / Enterprise Value 61.46b)
FCF Margin = 11.11% (FCF TTM 2.91b / Revenue TTM 26.23b)
Net Margin = 10.07% (Net Income TTM 2.64b / Revenue TTM 26.23b)
Gross Margin = 39.49% ((Revenue TTM 26.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 15.87b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.22% (prev 38.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.23 (Enterprise Value 61.46b / Total Assets 49.87b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.06% (Interest Expense 296.0m / Debt 27.86b)
Taxrate = 0.32% (6.00m / 1.86b)
NOPAT = 4.06b (EBIT 4.07b * (1 - 0.32%))
Current Ratio = 0.34 (Total Current Assets 3.87b / Total Current Liabilities 11.44b)
Debt / Equity = 2.34 (Debt 27.86b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.93b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.84 (Net Debt 26.10b / EBITDA 6.79b)
Debt / FCF = 8.96 (Net Debt 26.10b / FCF TTM 2.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.09b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.30% (Net Income 2.64b / Total Assets 49.87b)
RoE = 26.18% (Net Income TTM 2.64b / Total Stockholder Equity 10.09b)
RoCE = 11.58% (EBIT 4.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 10.09b + L.T.Debt 25.06b))
RoIC = 10.92% (NOPAT 4.06b / Invested Capital 37.15b)
WACC = 7.40% (E(35.36b)/V(63.22b) * Re(12.39%) + D(27.86b)/V(63.22b) * Rd(1.06%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 12.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.36%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 53.66% ; FCFE base≈2.24b ; Y1≈1.47b ; Y5≈672.2m
Fair Price DCF = 6.56 (DCF Value 7.66b / Shares Outstanding 1.17b; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 76.38 | EPS CAGR: 163.6% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.53 | Revenue CAGR: 63.61% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-02-28): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=10
EPS next Year (2026-11-30): EPS=2.43 | Chg30d=+0.012 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+12.4% | Growth Revenue=+4.3%
Additional Sources for CCL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle