COF Stock Analysis: Capital One Financial | NYSE
Credit Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 123.635m USD | 12M Return: -3.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 1.01B
EPS Trend: 91.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is a U.S.-based financial services holding company that operates primarily through its subsidiary, Capital One, National Association. Founded in 1988 and headquartered in McLean, Virginia, the company went public in 1994 and is classified within the Financials sector, specifically the Consumer Finance sub-industry. As a large-cap issuer, it serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
The company conducts its business through three operating segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. Its revenue model centers on lending activities, including credit card loans, personal and auto loans, residential mortgages, and commercial real estate and industrial loans, supplemented by deposit gathering (checking, savings, money market, and time deposits) and fee-based services such as advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and debit/credit card interchange.
Capital One distributes its products through a mix of digital channels and physical locations, including bank branches and Capital One Cafés, with a notable retail presence in states such as New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, and New Jersey, as well as the District of Columbia. As a major credit card issuer, the company generates a significant portion of its income from net interest revenue on card balances and interchange fees paid by merchants, both of which are core revenue streams for large U.S. consumer finance institutions.
- Credit card loan growth drives net interest income higher
- Net charge-offs and delinquencies rise in card portfolio
- Discover acquisition closes, expanding credit card market share
| Net Income: 3.22b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -419.7% < 20% (prev -577.0%; Δ 157.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 29.1b > Net Income 3.22b |
| Net Debt (-117b) to EBITDA (9.21b): -12.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.36 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (623.4m) vs 12m ago 62.34% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.31% > 18% (prev 52.20%; Δ -3.89% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 12.78% > 50% (prev 11.00%; Δ 1.78% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.20 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.25b / Interest Expense TTM 16.5b) |
| A: -0.46 (Total Current Assets 175b - Total Current Liabilities 491b) / Total Assets 683b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 66.8b / Total Assets 683b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 3.25b / Avg Total Assets 588b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 112b / Total Liabilities 571b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.47 = D |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 3.46b/2.60b, Revenue 75.2b/54.3b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 52.20% / 48.31%) |
| AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.74 / AQ_t-1 0.88) |
| SGI: 1.38 (Revenue 75.2b / 54.3b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 3.22b - CFO 29.1b) / TA 683b) |
| Beneish M = -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of June 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 204.00 with a total of 5,141,406 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.79%, over one month by +7.64%, over three months by +14.04% and over the past year by -3.53%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 194.10 (which is 4.9% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Capital One Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.43. Therefore, it is recommended to buy COF.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 254.7 | 24.8% |
P/E Trailing = 61.7538
P/E Forward = 10.2041
P/S = 3.4049
P/B = 1.1171
P/EG = 0.2153
Revenue TTM = 75.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.25b USD
EBITDA TTM = 9.21b USD
Long Term Debt = 51.3b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 626.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 51.9b USD (corrected: LT Debt 51.3b + ST Debt 626.0m) + Leases 22.0m
Net Debt = -117b USD (calculated: Debt 51.9b - CCE 169b)
Enterprise Value = 6.74b USD (124b + Debt 51.9b - CCE 169b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.20 (Ebit TTM 3.25b / Interest Expense TTM 16.5b)
EV/FCF = 0.23x (Enterprise Value 6.74b / FCF TTM 28.9b)
FCF Yield = 428.5% (FCF TTM 28.9b / Enterprise Value 6.74b)
FCF Margin = 38.41% (FCF TTM 28.9b / Revenue TTM 75.2b)
Net Margin = 4.29% (Net Income TTM 3.22b / Revenue TTM 75.2b)
Gross Margin = 48.31% ((Revenue TTM 75.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 38.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.79% (prev 57.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.01 (Enterprise Value 6.74b / Total Assets 683b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 31.78% (Interest Expense 16.5b / Debt 51.9b)
Taxrate = 11.87% (386.0m / 3.25b)
NOPAT = 2.87b (EBIT 3.25b * (1 - 11.87%))
Current Ratio = 0.36 (Total Current Assets 175b / Total Current Liabilities 491b)
Debt / Equity = 0.46 (Debt 51.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 112b)
Debt / EBITDA = -12.69 (Net Debt -117b / EBITDA 9.21b)
Debt / FCF = -4.05 (Net Debt -117b / FCF TTM 28.9b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 113b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.55% (Net Income 3.22b / Total Assets 683b)
RoE = 2.86% (Net Income TTM 3.22b / Total Stockholder Equity 113b)
RoCE = 1.98% (EBIT 3.25b / Capital Employed (Equity 113b + L.T.Debt 51.3b))
RoIC = 1.52% (NOPAT 2.87b / Invested Capital 189b)
WACC = 15.99% (E(124b)/V(176b) * Re(10.95%) + D(51.9b)/V(176b) * Rd(31.78%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 10.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 71.91 | Cagr: 24.20%
[DCF] Terminal Value 57.19% ; FCFF base≈24.7b ; Y1≈28.3b ; Y5≈41.7b
[DCF] Fair Price = 618.1 (EV 264b - Net Debt -117b = Equity 381b / Shares 616.0m; r=15.99% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 91.58 | EPS CAGR: 19.35% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.50 | Revenue CAGR: 18.15% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=5.45 | Chg30d=-0.51% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=19.70 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=-43% | GrowthEPS=+0.4% | GrowthRev=+19.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=24.29 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=-33% | GrowthEPS=+23.3% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -43%