COF Stock Analysis: Capital One Financial | NYSE
Credit Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 133.592m USD | 12M Return: 6.7% | US14040H1059 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 873M
EPS Trend: 94.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 95.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is a U.S.-based financial services holding company that operates primarily through its subsidiary, Capital One, National Association. Founded in 1988 and headquartered in McLean, Virginia, the company went public in 1994 and is classified within the Financials sector, specifically the Consumer Finance sub-industry. As a large-cap issuer, it serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
The company conducts its business through three operating segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. Its revenue model centers on lending activities, including credit card loans, personal and auto loans, residential mortgages, and commercial real estate and industrial loans, supplemented by deposit gathering (checking, savings, money market, and time deposits) and fee-based services such as advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and debit/credit card interchange.
Capital One distributes its products through a mix of digital channels and physical locations, including bank branches and Capital One Cafés, with a notable retail presence in states such as New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, and New Jersey, as well as the District of Columbia. As a major credit card issuer, the company generates a significant portion of its income from net interest revenue on card balances and interchange fees paid by merchants, both of which are core revenue streams for large U.S. consumer finance institutions.
- Credit card loan growth drives net interest income higher
- Net charge-offs and delinquencies rise in card portfolio
- Discover acquisition closes, expanding credit card market share
| Net Income: 10.5b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -539.9% < 20% (prev -702.2%; Δ 162.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 31.5b > Net Income 10.5b |
| Net Debt (-11.3b) to EBITDA (22.0b): -0.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (621.1m) vs 12m ago 22.84% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.19% > 18% (prev 41.55%; Δ 24.64% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 11.80% > 50% (prev 8.71%; Δ 3.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.99 > 6 (EBIT TTM 16.5b / Interest Expense TTM 16.7b) |
| A: -0.63 (Total Current Assets 61.3b - Total Current Liabilities 486b) / Total Assets 674b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 69.2b / Total Assets 674b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 16.5b / Avg Total Assets 666b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 114b / Total Liabilities 560b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.42 = D |
| DSRI: 0.74 (Receivables 3.43b/3.37b, Revenue 78.6b/57.4b) |
| GMI: 0.63 (GM 41.55% / 66.19%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.90 / AQ_t-1 0.89) |
| SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 78.6b / 57.4b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 10.5b - CFO 31.5b) / TA 674b) |
| Beneish M = -3.31 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 218.97 with a total of 1,620,845 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.59%, over one month by +8.66%, over three months by +19.56% and over the past year by +6.70%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 207.10 (which is 5.4% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Capital One Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.43. Therefore, it is recommended to buy COF.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 256.5 | 17.1% |
P/E Trailing = 12.0044
P/E Forward = 10.846
P/S = 2.7769
P/B = 1.174
P/EG = 0.2303
Revenue TTM = 78.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.5b USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.0b USD
Long Term Debt = 44.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 694.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 45.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 20.0m
Net Debt = -11.3b USD (calculated: Debt 45.4b - CCE 56.7b)
Enterprise Value = 122b USD (134b + Debt 45.4b - CCE 56.7b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.99 (Ebit TTM 16.5b / Interest Expense TTM 16.7b)
EV/FCF = 3.80x (Enterprise Value 122b / FCF TTM 32.2b)
FCF Yield = 26.34% (FCF TTM 32.2b / Enterprise Value 122b)
FCF Margin = 40.96% (FCF TTM 32.2b / Revenue TTM 78.6b)
Net Margin = 13.38% (Net Income TTM 10.5b / Revenue TTM 78.6b)
Gross Margin = 66.19% ((Revenue TTM 78.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 26.6b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.95% (prev 57.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.18 (Enterprise Value 122b / Total Assets 674b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 36.74% (Interest Expense 16.7b / Debt 45.4b)
Taxrate = 21.93% (2.85b / 13.0b)
NOPAT = 12.9b (EBIT 16.5b * (1 - 21.93%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 61.3b / Total Current Liabilities 486b)
Debt / Equity = 0.40 (Debt 45.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 114b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.52 (Net Debt -11.3b / EBITDA 22.0b)
Debt / FCF = -0.35 (Net Debt -11.3b / FCF TTM 32.2b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 113b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.58% (Net Income 10.5b / Total Assets 674b)
RoE = 9.28% (Net Income TTM 10.5b / Total Stockholder Equity 113b)
RoCE = 10.46% (EBIT 16.5b / Capital Employed (Equity 113b + L.T.Debt 44.7b))
RoIC = 6.98% (NOPAT 12.9b / Invested Capital 185b)
WACC = 15.43% (E(134b)/V(179b) * Re(10.92%) + D(45.4b)/V(179b) * Rd(36.74%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.92% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 89.41 | Cagr: 23.91%
[DCF] Terminal Value 58.49% ; FCFF base≈26.6b ; Y1≈30.5b ; Y5≈44.9b
[DCF] Fair Price = 502.7 (EV 297b - Net Debt -11.3b = Equity 308b / Shares 613.5m; r=15.43% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 94.43 | EPS CAGR: 21.56% | SUE: 1.20 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 95.22 | Revenue CAGR: 19.37% | SUE: 0.77 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=5.34 | Chg30d=-2.56% | Revisions=-15% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=20.40 | Chg30d=+3.47% | Revisions=+47% | GrowthEPS=+4.0% | GrowthRev=+19.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=24.05 | Chg30d=-0.92% | Revisions=-24% | GrowthEPS=+17.9% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +5% (up=20, down=18)