COF Stock Analysis: Capital One Financial | NYSE
Credit Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 120.528m USD | 12M Return: -7.3% | US14040H1059 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 695M
EPS Trend: 94.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 95.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is a large-cap U.S. financial services holding company that operates through Capital One, National Association, with a presence in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company is classified within the GICS Consumer Finance sub-industry, reflecting its mix of lending and deposit-taking activities aimed primarily at retail consumers. Founded in 1988 and headquartered in McLean, Virginia, Capital One went public in 1994.
The company runs three reporting segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. Its deposit products include checking, money market, savings, time, and sweep accounts, while its lending portfolio spans credit card and personal loans, auto and retail banking loans, as well as commercial and multifamily real estate and commercial and industrial loans. Capital One also offers credit and debit cards, bank lending, and ancillary services such as advisory, capital markets, net interchange, treasury management, and depository services.
Capital One serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through a multi-channel distribution model that combines digital platforms with physical branches and Capital One Cafés. Its U.S. branch footprint is concentrated in a handful of states, including New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia, rather than maintaining a nationwide brick-and-mortar network.
- Credit card outstandings growth drives net interest income
- Discover acquisition expands scale and merchant network
- Rising delinquencies pressure credit card charge-offs
| Net Income: 10.5b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -539.9% < 20% (prev -702.2%; Δ 162.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 31.5b > Net Income 10.5b |
| Net Debt (-11.3b) to EBITDA (22.0b): -0.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (621.1m) vs 12m ago 22.84% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.19% > 18% (prev 41.55%; Δ 24.64% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 11.80% > 50% (prev 8.71%; Δ 3.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.99 > 6 (EBIT TTM 16.5b / Interest Expense TTM 16.7b) |
| A: -0.63 (Total Current Assets 61.3b - Total Current Liabilities 486b) / Total Assets 674b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 69.2b / Total Assets 674b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 16.5b / Avg Total Assets 666b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 114b / Total Liabilities 560b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.42 = D |
| DSRI: 0.74 (Receivables 3.43b/3.37b, Revenue 78.6b/57.4b) |
| GMI: 0.63 (GM 41.55% / 66.19%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.90 / AQ_t-1 0.89) |
| SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 78.6b / 57.4b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 10.5b - CFO 31.5b) / TA 674b) |
| Beneish M = -3.31 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 195.14 with a total of 2,489,407 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.67%, over one month by -8.80%, over three months by -5.17% and over the past year by -7.33%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 185.10 (which is 5.1% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
Capital One Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.43. Therefore, it is recommended to buy COF.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 258.3 | 32.4% |
P/E Trailing = 11.0557
P/E Forward = 8.489
P/S = 2.5052
P/B = 1.0812
P/EG = 0.1803
Revenue TTM = 78.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.5b USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.0b USD
Long Term Debt = 44.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 694.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 45.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 20.0m
Net Debt = -11.3b USD (calculated: Debt 45.4b - CCE 56.7b)
Enterprise Value = 109b USD (121b + Debt 45.4b - CCE 56.7b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.99 (Ebit TTM 16.5b / Interest Expense TTM 16.7b)
EV/FCF = 3.39x (Enterprise Value 109b / FCF TTM 32.2b)
FCF Yield = 29.49% (FCF TTM 32.2b / Enterprise Value 109b)
FCF Margin = 40.96% (FCF TTM 32.2b / Revenue TTM 78.6b)
Net Margin = 13.38% (Net Income TTM 10.5b / Revenue TTM 78.6b)
Gross Margin = 66.19% ((Revenue TTM 78.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 26.6b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.95% (prev 57.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.16 (Enterprise Value 109b / Total Assets 674b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 36.74% (Interest Expense 16.7b / Debt 45.4b)
Taxrate = 21.93% (2.85b / 13.0b)
NOPAT = 12.9b (EBIT 16.5b * (1 - 21.93%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 61.3b / Total Current Liabilities 486b)
Debt / Equity = 0.40 (Debt 45.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 114b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.52 (Net Debt -11.3b / EBITDA 22.0b)
Debt / FCF = -0.35 (Net Debt -11.3b / FCF TTM 32.2b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 113b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.58% (Net Income 10.5b / Total Assets 674b)
RoE = 9.28% (Net Income TTM 10.5b / Total Stockholder Equity 113b)
RoCE = 10.46% (EBIT 16.5b / Capital Employed (Equity 113b + L.T.Debt 44.7b))
RoIC = 6.98% (NOPAT 12.9b / Invested Capital 185b)
WACC = 15.79% (E(121b)/V(166b) * Re(10.93%) + D(45.4b)/V(166b) * Rd(36.74%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 89.41 | Cagr: 23.91%
[DCF] Terminal Value 57.66% ; FCFF base≈26.6b ; Y1≈30.5b ; Y5≈44.9b
[DCF] Fair Price = 488.9 (EV 289b - Net Debt -11.3b = Equity 300b / Shares 613.5m; r=15.79% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 94.43 | EPS CAGR: 21.56% | SUE: 1.20 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 95.22 | Revenue CAGR: 19.37% | SUE: 0.77 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=5.39 | Chg30d=+0.99% | Revisions=-6% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=20.22 | Chg30d=-0.86% | Revisions=+65% | GrowthEPS=+3.1% | GrowthRev=+19.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=23.83 | Chg30d=-0.78% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+17.8% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=23, down=12)