CVLG Stock Analysis: Covenant Logistics | NYSE
Trucking | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 735m USD | 12M Return: 45% | US22284P1057 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.97M
EPS Trend: -96.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 84.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) is a U.S.-based transportation and logistics company that operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. The Expedited segment focuses on high-service truckload freight with demanding delivery standards, while the Dedicated segment provides committed truckload capacity under multi-year contracts. Managed Freight offers third-party brokerage and transport management services, and the Warehousing segment provides day-to-day warehouse management, shuttle, and switching services. The company also operates a used equipment sales and leasing business.
CVLG serves a diverse customer base that includes parcel freight forwarders, less-than-truckload carriers, third-party logistics providers, and traditional truckload customers such as manufacturers, retailers, and food and beverage shippers. Founded in 1986 and headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee, the company has been publicly traded on the NYSE since 1994 and is classified within the Industrials sector under the Cargo Ground Transportation sub-industry.
- Truckload freight rates decline amid weak shipping demand
- Dedicated segment expands with multi-year contracted revenue
- Used equipment sales inflate margins in soft freight cycle
| Net Income: 3.79m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.16% < 20% (prev 1.47%; Δ 0.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 85.0m > Net Income 3.79m |
| Net Debt (70.1m) to EBITDA (100.8m): 0.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.14 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (26.5m) vs 12m ago -3.75% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.68% > 18% (prev 16.06%; Δ -5.38% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 122.3% > 50% (prev 112.7%; Δ 9.60% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.45 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.17m / Interest Expense TTM 13.6m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 220.0m - Total Current Liabilities 193.4m) / Total Assets 1.01b |
| B: 0.29 (Retained Earnings 287.6m / Total Assets 1.01b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 6.17m / Avg Total Assets 1.01b) |
| D: 0.70 (Book Value of Equity 412.9m / Total Liabilities 592.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.88 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 182.4m/160.5m, Revenue 1.23b/1.14b) |
| GMI: 1.50 (GM 16.06% / 10.68%) |
| AQI: 0.12 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 1.23b / 1.14b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 3.79m - CFO 85.0m) / TA 1.01b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 28.82 with a total of 216,979 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.19%, over one month by -12.69%, over three months by -30.41% and over the past year by +45.02%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 27.10 (which is 6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Covenant Logistics has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.40. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CVLG.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 49.5 | 71.8% |
P/E Trailing = 2897.0
P/E Forward = 12.4688
P/S = 0.5966
P/B = 1.8397
Revenue TTM = 1.23b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.17m USD
EBITDA TTM = 100.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 224.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 78.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 359.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 35.4m
Net Debt = 70.1m USD (calculated: Debt 359.8m - CCE 289.7m)
Enterprise Value = 805.3m USD (735.2m + Debt 359.8m - CCE 289.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.45 (Ebit TTM 6.17m / Interest Expense TTM 13.6m)
EV/FCF = 7.34x (Enterprise Value 805.3m / FCF TTM 109.7m)
FCF Yield = 13.62% (FCF TTM 109.7m / Enterprise Value 805.3m)
FCF Margin = 8.90% (FCF TTM 109.7m / Revenue TTM 1.23b)
Net Margin = 0.31% (Net Income TTM 3.79m / Revenue TTM 1.23b)
Gross Margin = 10.68% ((Revenue TTM 1.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.10b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 7.94% (prev 8.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 805.3m / Total Assets 1.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.78% (Interest Expense 13.6m / Debt 359.8m)
Taxrate = 23.28% (2.59m / 11.1m)
NOPAT = 4.74m (EBIT 6.17m * (1 - 23.28%))
Current Ratio = 1.14 (Total Current Assets 220.0m / Total Current Liabilities 193.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.87 (Debt 359.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 412.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.70 (Net Debt 70.1m / EBITDA 100.8m)
Debt / FCF = 0.64 (Net Debt 70.1m / FCF TTM 109.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 412.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.38% (Net Income 3.79m / Total Assets 1.01b)
RoE = 0.92% (Net Income TTM 3.79m / Total Stockholder Equity 412.0m)
RoCE = 0.97% (EBIT 6.17m / Capital Employed (Equity 412.0m + L.T.Debt 224.7m))
RoIC = 0.57% (NOPAT 4.74m / Invested Capital 828.7m)
WACC = 6.69% (E(735.2m)/V(1.09b) * Re(8.54%) + D(359.8m)/V(1.09b) * Rd(3.78%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -69.23 | Cagr: -1.74%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈66.5m ; Y1≈76.2m ; Y5≈112.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 78.22 (EV 1.69b - Net Debt 70.1m = Equity 1.62b / Shares 20.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -96.63 | EPS CAGR: -15.20% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.58 | Revenue CAGR: 3.07% | SUE: -0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=-12.96% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.62 | Chg30d=-5.85% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+5.7% | GrowthRev=+13.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.64 | Chg30d=-3.39% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+63.1% | GrowthRev=+9.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -55% (up=1, down=7)