CVLG Stock Analysis: Covenant Logistics | NYSE
Trucking | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 889m USD | 12M Return: 51.8% | US22284P1057 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 6.60M
EPS Trend: -96.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 84.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (NYSE: CVLG) is a U.S.-based transportation and logistics provider operating through four reporting segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. This multi-segment structure is common among mid-sized truckload carriers, which often combine asset-based services (using owned or leased equipment) with asset-light offerings such as brokerage and managed transportation to diversify revenue and reduce exposure to any single freight cycle.
The Expedited segment focuses on time-sensitive truckload freight, the Dedicated segment offers contracted capacity over multi-year terms, the Managed Freight segment provides brokerage and transportation management services, and the Warehousing segment handles day-to-day warehouse operations along with shuttle and switching services. The combination of dedicated, brokerage, and warehousing capabilities allows the company to serve a mix of customers that includes parcel freight forwarders, less-than-truckload carriers, third-party logistics providers, manufacturers, retailers, and food and beverage shippers.
Founded in 1986 and headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee, the company originally operated as Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. before adopting its current name in May 2007. As a small-cap industrial within the Cargo Ground Transportation sub-industry, CVLG participates in a highly fragmented and cyclical U.S. trucking market where demand tends to track broader economic activity and freight volumes.
- Spot truckload rates weigh on Expedited segment margins
- Dedicated contracts anchor revenue amid freight cycle weakness
- Managed Freight brokerage margins face industry-wide compression
| Net Income: 3.79m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.16% < 20% (prev 1.47%; Δ 0.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 85.0m > Net Income 3.79m |
| Net Debt (70.1m) to EBITDA (100.8m): 0.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.14 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (26.5m) vs 12m ago -3.75% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.68% > 18% (prev 16.06%; Δ -5.38% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 122.3% > 50% (prev 112.7%; Δ 9.60% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.45 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.17m / Interest Expense TTM 13.6m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 220.0m - Total Current Liabilities 193.4m) / Total Assets 1.01b |
| B: 0.29 (Retained Earnings 287.6m / Total Assets 1.01b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 6.17m / Avg Total Assets 1.01b) |
| D: 0.70 (Book Value of Equity 412.9m / Total Liabilities 592.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.88 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 182.4m/160.5m, Revenue 1.23b/1.14b) |
| GMI: 1.50 (GM 16.06% / 10.68%) |
| AQI: 0.12 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 1.23b / 1.14b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 3.79m - CFO 85.0m) / TA 1.01b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 35.63 with a total of 238,735 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.85%, over one month by +6.99%, over three months by -22.92% and over the past year by +51.81%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 32.40 (which is 9.1% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
Covenant Logistics has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CVLG.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 51.8 | 45.2% |
P/E Trailing = 701.0
P/E Forward = 14.3266
P/S = 0.7218
P/B = 2.1132
Revenue TTM = 1.23b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.17m USD
EBITDA TTM = 100.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 224.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 78.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 359.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 35.4m
Net Debt = 70.1m USD (calculated: Debt 359.8m - CCE 289.7m)
Enterprise Value = 959.6m USD (889.5m + Debt 359.8m - CCE 289.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.45 (Ebit TTM 6.17m / Interest Expense TTM 13.6m)
EV/FCF = 8.75x (Enterprise Value 959.6m / FCF TTM 109.7m)
FCF Yield = 11.43% (FCF TTM 109.7m / Enterprise Value 959.6m)
FCF Margin = 8.90% (FCF TTM 109.7m / Revenue TTM 1.23b)
Net Margin = 0.31% (Net Income TTM 3.79m / Revenue TTM 1.23b)
Gross Margin = 10.68% ((Revenue TTM 1.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.10b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 7.94% (prev 8.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 959.6m / Total Assets 1.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.78% (Interest Expense 13.6m / Debt 359.8m)
Taxrate = 23.28% (2.59m / 11.1m)
NOPAT = 4.74m (EBIT 6.17m * (1 - 23.28%))
Current Ratio = 1.14 (Total Current Assets 220.0m / Total Current Liabilities 193.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.87 (Debt 359.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 412.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.70 (Net Debt 70.1m / EBITDA 100.8m)
Debt / FCF = 0.64 (Net Debt 70.1m / FCF TTM 109.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 412.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.38% (Net Income 3.79m / Total Assets 1.01b)
RoE = 0.92% (Net Income TTM 3.79m / Total Stockholder Equity 412.0m)
RoCE = 0.97% (EBIT 6.17m / Capital Employed (Equity 412.0m + L.T.Debt 224.7m))
RoIC = 0.57% (NOPAT 4.74m / Invested Capital 828.7m)
WACC = 7.36% (E(889.5m)/V(1.25b) * Re(9.16%) + D(359.8m)/V(1.25b) * Rd(3.78%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -69.23 | Cagr: -1.74%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈66.5m ; Y1≈76.2m ; Y5≈112.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 78.22 (EV 1.69b - Net Debt 70.1m = Equity 1.62b / Shares 20.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -96.63 | EPS CAGR: -15.20% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.58 | Revenue CAGR: 3.07% | SUE: -0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=-5.45% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.72 | Chg30d=-2.52% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+12.3% | GrowthRev=+12.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.73 | Chg30d=-4.63% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+58.9% | GrowthRev=+8.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=1, down=3)