CVLG Stock Analysis: Covenant Logistics | NYSE
Trucking | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.213m USD | 12M Return: 102.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.25M
EPS Trend: -96.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 65.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (NYSE: CVLG) is a U.S.-based transportation and logistics provider operating through four reporting segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. This multi-segment structure is common among mid-sized truckload carriers, which often combine asset-based services (using owned or leased equipment) with asset-light offerings such as brokerage and managed transportation to diversify revenue and reduce exposure to any single freight cycle.
The Expedited segment focuses on time-sensitive truckload freight, the Dedicated segment offers contracted capacity over multi-year terms, the Managed Freight segment provides brokerage and transportation management services, and the Warehousing segment handles day-to-day warehouse operations along with shuttle and switching services. The combination of dedicated, brokerage, and warehousing capabilities allows the company to serve a mix of customers that includes parcel freight forwarders, less-than-truckload carriers, third-party logistics providers, manufacturers, retailers, and food and beverage shippers.
Founded in 1986 and headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee, the company originally operated as Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. before adopting its current name in May 2007. As a small-cap industrial within the Cargo Ground Transportation sub-industry, CVLG participates in a highly fragmented and cyclical U.S. trucking market where demand tends to track broader economic activity and freight volumes.
- Spot truckload rates weigh on Expedited segment margins
- Dedicated contracts anchor revenue amid freight cycle weakness
- Managed Freight brokerage margins face industry-wide compression
| Net Income: 5.10m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 14.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.75% < 20% (prev 1.38%; Δ -0.63% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 117.8m > Net Income 5.10m |
| Net Debt (318.7m) to EBITDA (111.1m): 2.87 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (26.4m) vs 12m ago -5.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.80% > 18% (prev 15.00%; Δ -2.21% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 120.4% > 50% (prev 114.5%; Δ 5.92% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM 16.2m / Interest Expense TTM 13.1m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 211.1m - Total Current Liabilities 202.2m) / Total Assets 1.02b |
| B: 0.28 (Retained Earnings 280.9m / Total Assets 1.02b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 16.2m / Avg Total Assets 998.4m) |
| D: 0.67 (Book Value of Equity 407.6m / Total Liabilities 609.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.77 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 173.3m/145.1m, Revenue 1.20b/1.12b) |
| GMI: 1.17 (GM 15.00% / 12.80%) |
| AQI: 0.23 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 1.20b / 1.12b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 5.10m - CFO 117.8m) / TA 1.02b) |
| Beneish M = -3.19 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 47.34 with a total of 146,273 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.67%, over one month by +9.25%, over three months by +52.47% and over the past year by +102.65%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 44.40 (which is 6.2% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Covenant Logistics has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CVLG.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 54.3 | 14.8% |
P/E Trailing = 482.1
P/E Forward = 28.6533
P/S = 1.0093
P/B = 2.8339
Revenue TTM = 1.20b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 111.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 201.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 65.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 330.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 38.2m
Net Debt = 318.7m USD (calculated: Debt 330.0m - CCE 11.2m)
Enterprise Value = 1.53b USD (1.21b + Debt 330.0m - CCE 11.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.24 (Ebit TTM 16.2m / Interest Expense TTM 13.1m)
EV/FCF = 10.96x (Enterprise Value 1.53b / FCF TTM 139.8m)
FCF Yield = 9.13% (FCF TTM 139.8m / Enterprise Value 1.53b)
FCF Margin = 11.63% (FCF TTM 139.8m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Net Margin = 0.42% (Net Income TTM 5.10m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Gross Margin = 12.80% ((Revenue TTM 1.20b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.05b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.41% (prev 12.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.51 (Enterprise Value 1.53b / Total Assets 1.02b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.97% (Interest Expense 13.1m / Debt 330.0m)
Taxrate = 27.53% (861k / 3.13m)
NOPAT = 11.7m (EBIT 16.2m * (1 - 27.53%))
Current Ratio = 1.04 (Total Current Assets 211.1m / Total Current Liabilities 202.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.81 (Debt 330.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 407.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.87 (Net Debt 318.7m / EBITDA 111.1m)
Debt / FCF = 2.28 (Net Debt 318.7m / FCF TTM 139.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 413.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.51% (Net Income 5.10m / Total Assets 1.02b)
RoE = 1.23% (Net Income TTM 5.10m / Total Stockholder Equity 413.0m)
RoCE = 2.64% (EBIT 16.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 413.0m + L.T.Debt 201.4m))
RoIC = 1.35% (NOPAT 11.7m / Invested Capital 869.0m)
WACC = 8.56% (E(1.21b)/V(1.54b) * Re(10.10%) + D(330.0m)/V(1.54b) * Rd(3.97%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 10.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -61.97 | Cagr: -1.61%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.72% ; FCFF base≈139.8m ; Y1≈140.4m ; Y5≈148.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 93.63 (EV 2.24b - Net Debt 318.7m = Equity 1.92b / Shares 20.5m; r=8.56% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -96.64 | EPS CAGR: -15.14% | SUE: 0.97 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 64.96 | Revenue CAGR: 1.63% | SUE: 2.06 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=+2.44% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=+6.63% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.76 | Chg30d=+4.93% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+14.9% | GrowthRev=+12.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.86 | Chg30d=+9.05% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+62.9% | GrowthRev=+10.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=3, down=6)