CXW Stock Analysis: CoreCivic | NYSE
Security & Protection Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.484m USD | 12M Return: 59.5% | US21871N1019 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 64.1M
EPS Trend: 95.2%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: 88.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW) is a Brentwood, Tennessee-based company founded in 1983 that owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities across the United States. The company organizes its operations into three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties, offering government partners a range of services that include corrections and detention management, a network of residential reentry centers aimed at reducing recidivism, and government real estate solutions. In addition to housing and supervision, the company provides rehabilitation and educational programming (basic education, faith-based services, life skills, employment training, and substance abuse treatment), food services, work and recreational programs, and on-site health care including medical, dental, and mental health services.
The business model is built around long-term contracts with federal, state, and local government agencies, making government policy and correctional budgets the primary demand drivers. Notably, CoreCivic is classified within the GICS Industrials sector under the Security & Alarm Services sub-industry rather than a dedicated corrections category, reflecting how index providers group private prison operators alongside other facility-based security service providers.
- ICE detention demand boosts Safety segment occupancy
- Federal executive orders limit private prison contracts
- CoreCivic Properties lease revenue stabilizes cash flow
| Net Income: 127.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.90 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.49% < 20% (prev 9.18%; Δ -2.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 200.2m > Net Income 127.9m |
| Net Debt (1.37b) to EBITDA (382.7m): 3.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.32 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.0m) vs 12m ago -4.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.80% > 18% (prev 24.28%; Δ -4.49% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 76.11% > 50% (prev 65.03%; Δ 11.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.31 > 6 (EBIT TTM 246.3m / Interest Expense TTM 74.4m) |
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 666.9m - Total Current Liabilities 505.7m) / Total Assets 3.46b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -48.4m / Total Assets 3.46b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 246.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.26b) |
| D: 0.71 (Book Value of Equity 1.44b / Total Liabilities 2.02b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.52 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.24 (Receivables 463.1m/300.4m, Revenue 2.48b/2.00b) |
| GMI: 1.23 (GM 24.28% / 19.80%) |
| AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.17) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 2.48b / 2.00b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 127.9m - CFO 200.2m) / TA 3.46b) |
| Beneish M = -2.40 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of September 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 34.36 with a total of 2,620,254 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.32%, over one month by +1.54%, over three months by +15.30% and over the past year by +59.52%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 31.00 (which is 9.8% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
CoreCivic has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CXW.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 41.8 | 21.7% |
P/E Trailing = 27.9603
P/E Forward = 13.7552
P/S = 1.4026
P/B = 2.422
P/EG = 1.0611
Revenue TTM = 2.48b USD
EBIT TTM = 246.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 382.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.23b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 115.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.48b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 130.4m
Net Debt = 1.37b USD (calculated: Debt 1.48b - CCE 108.9m)
Enterprise Value = 4.85b USD (3.48b + Debt 1.48b - CCE 108.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.31 (Ebit TTM 246.3m / Interest Expense TTM 74.4m)
EV/FCF = 84.66x (Enterprise Value 4.85b / FCF TTM 57.3m)
FCF Yield = 1.18% (FCF TTM 57.3m / Enterprise Value 4.85b)
FCF Margin = 2.31% (FCF TTM 57.3m / Revenue TTM 2.48b)
Net Margin = 5.15% (Net Income TTM 127.9m / Revenue TTM 2.48b)
Gross Margin = 19.80% ((Revenue TTM 2.48b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.99b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.52% (prev 18.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.40 (Enterprise Value 4.85b / Total Assets 3.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.04% (Interest Expense 74.4m / Debt 1.48b)
Taxrate = 25.92% (44.7m / 172.6m)
NOPAT = 182.4m (EBIT 246.3m * (1 - 25.92%))
Current Ratio = 1.32 (Total Current Assets 666.9m / Total Current Liabilities 505.7m)
Debt / Equity = 1.03 (Debt 1.48b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.44b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.58 (Net Debt 1.37b / EBITDA 382.7m)
Debt / FCF = 23.88 (Net Debt 1.37b / FCF TTM 57.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.43b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.92% (Net Income 127.9m / Total Assets 3.46b)
RoE = 8.96% (Net Income TTM 127.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.43b)
RoCE = 9.26% (EBIT 246.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.43b + L.T.Debt 1.23b))
RoIC = 6.17% (NOPAT 182.4m / Invested Capital 2.96b)
WACC = 4.99% (E(3.48b)/V(4.96b) * Re(5.53%) + D(1.48b)/V(4.96b) * Rd(5.04%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 5.53% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -91.68 | Cagr: -3.36%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈102.7m ; Y1≈90.1m ; Y5≈72.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.17b - Net Debt 1.37b = -200.5m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 95.18 | EPS CAGR: 44.34% | SUE: 0.89 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 88.87 | Revenue CAGR: 9.07% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=+3.19% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.68 | Chg30d=-0.25% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+52.9% | GrowthRev=+22.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.37 | Chg30d=+4.10% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+40.9% | GrowthRev=+8.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -18% (up=3, down=5)