(CXW) CoreCivic - Overview
Stock: Correctional Facilities, Detention Centers, Reentry Centers, Real Estate
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.04 |
| Alpha | -13.16 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.546 |
| Beta Downside | 0.437 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 32.62% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.54 |
Description: CXW CoreCivic January 13, 2026
CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) owns and operates a network of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities across the United States, organized into three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties. The firm contracts with federal, state, and local governments to provide incarceration, rehabilitation, and real-estate services, offering programs ranging from basic education and substance-abuse treatment to health-care and work-training initiatives. Founded in 1983 and headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee, CoreCivic is classified under the “Security & Alarm Services” sub-industry in GICS.
Key operating metrics (FY 2023) include approximately $1.3 billion in revenue, an adjusted EBITDA margin near 15 %, and an average facility occupancy rate of roughly 92 %. Federal contracts account for about 70 % of total revenue, making the company highly sensitive to policy shifts such as criminal-justice reform and budgetary allocations. A primary sector driver is the ongoing debate over incarceration rates, which influences both contract renewal risk and potential growth in residential reentry services; meanwhile, rising labor and health-care costs have pressured operating margins, prompting management to focus on cost-efficiency and diversification into community-based programs.
For a deeper dive into CoreCivic’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-driven overview.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 109.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.58% < 20% (prev 7.17%; Δ -0.59% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 234.2m > Net Income 109.2m |
| Net Debt (971.3m) to EBITDA (333.1m): 2.92 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.41 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (109.2m) vs 12m ago -1.62% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.73% > 18% (prev 0.21%; Δ 2352 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 69.27% > 50% (prev 67.73%; Δ 1.54% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.43 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 333.1m / Interest Expense TTM 60.1m) |
Altman Z'' 0.50
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 471.6m - Total Current Liabilities 334.4m) / Total Assets 3.11b |
| B: -0.05 (Retained Earnings -150.0m / Total Assets 3.11b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 206.2m / Avg Total Assets 3.01b) |
| D: -0.09 (Book Value of Equity -149.0m / Total Liabilities 1.64b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.50 = B |
Beneish M -2.84
| DSRI: 1.26 (Receivables 351.4m/264.8m, Revenue 2.09b/1.97b) |
| GMI: 0.89 (GM 23.73% / 21.08%) |
| AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 2.09b / 1.97b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 109.2m - CFO 234.2m) / TA 3.11b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of CXW shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.03%, over one month by -1.27%, over three months by +11.49% and over the past year by -0.21%.
Is CXW a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CXW price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 29.9 | 59.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 29.9 | 59.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.9 | 11.9% |
CXW Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 24.3902
P/S = 0.9508
P/B = 1.3336
P/EG = 1.44
Revenue TTM = 2.09b USD
EBIT TTM = 206.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 333.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.03b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 971.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.97b USD (1.98b + Debt 1.04b - CCE 56.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.43 (Ebit TTM 206.2m / Interest Expense TTM 60.1m)
EV/FCF = 26.30x (Enterprise Value 2.97b / FCF TTM 112.9m)
FCF Yield = 3.80% (FCF TTM 112.9m / Enterprise Value 2.97b)
FCF Margin = 5.41% (FCF TTM 112.9m / Revenue TTM 2.09b)
Net Margin = 5.24% (Net Income TTM 109.2m / Revenue TTM 2.09b)
Gross Margin = 23.73% ((Revenue TTM 2.09b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.55% (prev 25.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 2.97b / Total Assets 3.11b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.59% (Interest Expense 16.6m / Debt 1.04b)
Taxrate = 28.04% (10.3m / 36.6m)
NOPAT = 148.4m (EBIT 206.2m * (1 - 28.04%))
Current Ratio = 1.41 (Total Current Assets 471.6m / Total Current Liabilities 334.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.71 (Debt 1.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.47b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.92 (Net Debt 971.3m / EBITDA 333.1m)
Debt / FCF = 8.60 (Net Debt 971.3m / FCF TTM 112.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.48b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.63% (Net Income 109.2m / Total Assets 3.11b)
RoE = 7.39% (Net Income TTM 109.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.48b)
RoCE = 8.22% (EBIT 206.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.48b + L.T.Debt 1.03b))
RoIC = 5.97% (NOPAT 148.4m / Invested Capital 2.49b)
WACC = 5.59% (E(1.98b)/V(3.03b) * Re(7.93%) + D(1.04b)/V(3.03b) * Rd(1.59%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 7.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.48%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.05% ; FCFF base≈138.7m ; Y1≈149.6m ; Y5≈184.2m
Fair Price DCF = 42.80 (EV 5.45b - Net Debt 971.3m = Equity 4.48b / Shares 104.6m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 8.85% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 15.16 | EPS CAGR: 1.14% | SUE: -0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 79.25 | Revenue CAGR: 5.66% | SUE: 3.05 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.55 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+49.5% | Growth Revenue=+12.8%