HCC Stock Analysis: Warrior Met Coal | NYSE
Coking Coal | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.873m USD | 12M Return: 41.7% | US93627C1018 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 56.6M
EPS Trend: -71.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -51.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE: HCC) is a U.S.-based producer and exporter of non-thermal metallurgical coal, primarily hard-coking coal used by steel manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. The company operates underground mines in Alabama and generates a secondary revenue stream by selling natural gas extracted as a byproduct of its coal mining operations. Warrior Met Coal was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.
As a pure-play metallurgical coal producer, the companys earnings are closely tied to global steel industry demand and the price spread between metallurgical and thermal coal. Its Alabama operations are located within the prolific Warrior Basin, one of the major U.S. metallurgical coal-producing regions, and its primary product (hard-coking coal) is an essential input for traditional blast furnace steelmaking rather than electric arc furnace routes.
- Global steel demand lifts coking coal export prices
- Alabama underground mine output drives export volumes
- Capital returns expand as Warrior Met Coal deleverages balance sheet
| Net Income: 219.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.72 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 40.71% < 20% (prev 54.58%; Δ -13.88% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 301.3m > Net Income 219.3m |
| Net Debt (28.1m) to EBITDA (454.0m): 0.06 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.9m) vs 12m ago 0.48% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.84% > 18% (prev 6.91%; Δ 34.93% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 60.60% > 50% (prev 46.20%; Δ 14.39% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 18.01 > 6 (EBIT TTM 242.1m / Interest Expense TTM 13.4m) |
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 917.6m - Total Current Liabilities 233.7m) / Total Assets 2.90b |
| B: 0.70 (Retained Earnings 2.04b / Total Assets 2.90b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 242.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.77b) |
| D: 3.75 (Book Value of Equity 2.29b / Total Liabilities 610.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 8.37 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 330.3m/206.7m, Revenue 1.68b/1.22b) |
| GMI: 0.17 (GM 6.91% / 41.84%) |
| AQI: 2.66 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 1.68b / 1.22b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 219.3m - CFO 301.3m) / TA 2.90b) |
| Beneish M = -2.40 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of October 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 93.92 with a total of 449,649 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.77%, over one month by -1.61%, over three months by +14.47% and over the past year by +41.71%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 89.10 (which is 5.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Warrior Met Coal has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.14. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HCC.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 109.3 | 16.4% |
P/E Trailing = 22.1851
P/E Forward = 16.2338
P/S = 2.8964
P/B = 2.0805
Revenue TTM = 1.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 242.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 454.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 154.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 32.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 350.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 114.7m
Net Debt = 28.1m USD (calculated: Debt 350.6m - CCE 322.5m)
Enterprise Value = 4.90b USD (4.87b + Debt 350.6m - CCE 322.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.01 (Ebit TTM 242.1m / Interest Expense TTM 13.4m)
EV/FCF = 799.0x (Enterprise Value 4.90b / FCF TTM 6.13m)
FCF Yield = 0.13% (FCF TTM 6.13m / Enterprise Value 4.90b)
FCF Margin = 0.37% (FCF TTM 6.13m / Revenue TTM 1.68b)
Net Margin = 13.05% (Net Income TTM 219.3m / Revenue TTM 1.68b)
Gross Margin = 41.84% ((Revenue TTM 1.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 977.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.90% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.69 (Enterprise Value 4.90b / Total Assets 2.90b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.83% (Interest Expense 13.4m / Debt 350.6m)
Taxrate = 4.08% (9.32m / 228.7m)
NOPAT = 232.2m (EBIT 242.1m * (1 - 4.08%))
Current Ratio = 3.93 (Total Current Assets 917.6m / Total Current Liabilities 233.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 350.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.29b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.06 (Net Debt 28.1m / EBITDA 454.0m)
Debt / FCF = 4.58 (Net Debt 28.1m / FCF TTM 6.13m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.91% (Net Income 219.3m / Total Assets 2.90b)
RoE = 10.02% (Net Income TTM 219.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.19b)
RoCE = 10.33% (EBIT 242.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.19b + L.T.Debt 154.6m))
RoIC = 8.88% (NOPAT 232.2m / Invested Capital 2.61b)
WACC = 8.97% (E(4.87b)/V(5.22b) * Re(9.35%) + D(350.6m)/V(5.22b) * Rd(3.83%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 9.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 0.55%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.29% ; FCFF base≈6.13m ; Y1≈6.16m ; Y5≈6.52m
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.21 (EV 91.8m - Net Debt 28.1m = Equity 63.7m / Shares 52.8m; r=8.97% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -71.11 | EPS CAGR: -52.57% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -51.70 | Revenue CAGR: -7.14% | SUE: 1.68 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.58 | Chg30d=+6.78% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.47 | Chg30d=+2.12% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+493.4% | GrowthRev=+52.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.94 | Chg30d=+1.50% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+7.3% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -19% (up=5, down=8)