HCC Stock Analysis: Warrior Met Coal | NYSE
Coking Coal | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.732m USD | 12M Return: 52.1% | US93627C1018 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 54.6M
EPS Trend: -71.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -51.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE: HCC) is a U.S.-based producer and exporter of non-thermal metallurgical coal, specifically hard-coking coal, which is a key input in steelmaking. The company operates underground mines in Alabama and serves steel producers in Europe, South America, and Asia. In addition to coal, Warrior Met Coal generates a secondary revenue stream by selling natural gas captured as a byproduct of its coal mining operations. The company was incorporated in 2015, is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama, and trades as a mid-cap stock within the Materials sector.
Hard-coking coal is valued for its ability to produce high-quality coke, a fuel and reducing agent essential in blast furnace steel production. Because metallurgical coal is distinct from thermal coal (used in power generation) and has fewer substitutes in traditional steelmaking, producers like Warrior Met Coal are closely tied to global steel demand cycles.
- Global steel demand drives coking coal pricing
- Alabama mine production volumes and costs set margins
- Buyback and dividend program returns capital to shareholders
| Net Income: 219.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.54 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 35.10% < 20% (prev 59.01%; Δ -23.91% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 289.6m > Net Income 219.3m |
| Net Debt (145.3m) to EBITDA (451.9m): 0.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.8m) vs 12m ago 0.56% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.84% > 18% (prev 6.91%; Δ 34.93% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 61.69% > 50% (prev 46.58%; Δ 15.11% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.85 > 6 (EBIT TTM 239.9m / Interest Expense TTM 13.4m) |
| A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 827.7m - Total Current Liabilities 237.9m) / Total Assets 2.82b |
| B: 0.69 (Retained Earnings 1.96b / Total Assets 2.82b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 239.9m / Avg Total Assets 2.72b) |
| D: 3.56 (Book Value of Equity 2.20b / Total Liabilities 619.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.96 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 296.1m/209.9m, Revenue 1.68b/1.22b) |
| GMI: 0.17 (GM 6.91% / 41.84%) |
| AQI: 2.15 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 1.68b / 1.22b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 219.3m - CFO 289.6m) / TA 2.82b) |
| Beneish M = -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 96.72 with a total of 615,119 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +14.83%, over one month by +17.88%, over three months by +9.66% and over the past year by +52.09%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 89.30 (which is 7.7% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Warrior Met Coal has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.86. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HCC.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 103 | 6.5% |
P/E Trailing = 20.276
P/E Forward = 13.9276
P/S = 3.2137
P/B = 1.902
Revenue TTM = 1.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 239.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 451.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 154.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 37.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 378.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 112.1m
Net Debt = 145.3m USD (calculated: Debt 378.6m - CCE 233.2m)
Enterprise Value = 4.88b USD (4.73b + Debt 378.6m - CCE 233.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.85 (Ebit TTM 239.9m / Interest Expense TTM 13.4m)
EV/FCF = -56.90x (Enterprise Value 4.88b / FCF TTM -85.7m)
FCF Yield = -1.76% (FCF TTM -85.7m / Enterprise Value 4.88b)
FCF Margin = -5.10% (FCF TTM -85.7m / Revenue TTM 1.68b)
Net Margin = 13.05% (Net Income TTM 219.3m / Revenue TTM 1.68b)
Gross Margin = 41.84% ((Revenue TTM 1.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 977.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.90% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.73 (Enterprise Value 4.88b / Total Assets 2.82b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.55% (Interest Expense 13.4m / Debt 378.6m)
Taxrate = 4.08% (9.32m / 228.7m)
NOPAT = 230.2m (EBIT 239.9m * (1 - 4.08%))
Current Ratio = 3.48 (Total Current Assets 827.7m / Total Current Liabilities 237.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.17 (Debt 378.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.32 (Net Debt 145.3m / EBITDA 451.9m)
Debt / FCF = -1.70 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 145.3m / FCF TTM -85.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.05% (Net Income 219.3m / Total Assets 2.82b)
RoE = 10.27% (Net Income TTM 219.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.14b)
RoCE = 10.48% (EBIT 239.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.14b + L.T.Debt 154.4m))
RoIC = 9.06% (NOPAT 230.2m / Invested Capital 2.54b)
WACC = 9.10% (E(4.73b)/V(5.11b) * Re(9.56%) + D(378.6m)/V(5.11b) * Rd(3.55%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 9.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 0.55%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -85.7m)
EPS Correlation: -71.11 | EPS CAGR: -52.57% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -51.70 | Revenue CAGR: -7.14% | SUE: 1.68 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.59 | Chg30d=-9.39% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.11 | Chg30d=-8.06% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+460.8% | GrowthRev=+52.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.28 | Chg30d=-2.09% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+19.0% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=1, down=6)