MCD Stock Analysis: McDonald’s | NYSE
Restaurants | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 180.937m USD | 12M Return: -16.1% | US5801351017 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 1.09B
EPS Trend: 73.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 91.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
McDonalds Corporation (NYSE: MCD) operates, franchises, and licenses restaurants under the McDonalds brand in the United States and internationally. Its menu spans hamburgers, cheeseburgers, chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, soft drinks, coffee, and limited-time promotional items, with breakfast offerings varying by market. Restaurant agreements are structured as conventional franchises, developmental licenses, or affiliates. The company was founded in 1940, is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and has been publicly listed since 1965.
McDonalds is classified within the GICS Restaurants sub-industry under Consumer Discretionary, part of the quick-service restaurant (QSR) segment of the broader restaurant industry. Its hybrid model pairs company-operated locations with a predominantly franchised base, a structure common among large QSR chains that lowers the parents capital intensity and produces recurring royalty and rent revenue from franchisees.
- US same-store sales pressured by weakening low-income consumer spending
- Menu pricing and commodity inflation squeeze restaurant-level margins
- International expansion in China and other markets faces demand headwinds
- Digital ordering and loyalty program drive incremental traffic growth
| Net Income: 8.79b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.37 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.18% < 20% (prev 5.0%; Δ -3.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 11.3b > Net Income 8.79b |
| Net Debt (68.5b) to EBITDA (15.0b): 4.56 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (713.5m) vs 12m ago -0.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 57.39% > 18% (prev 57.00%; Δ 0.39% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 46.38% > 50% (prev 43.76%; Δ 2.62% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.88 > 6 (EBIT TTM 12.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.62b) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 4.34b - Total Current Liabilities 4.02b) / Total Assets 59.9b |
| B: 1.20 (Retained Earnings 72.0b / Total Assets 59.9b) |
| C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 12.8b / Avg Total Assets 59.7b) |
| D: -0.02 (Book Value of Equity -1.02b / Total Liabilities 60.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.38 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 2.48b/2.55b, Revenue 27.7b/26.1b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 57.00% / 57.39%) |
| AQI: 2.13 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 27.7b / 26.1b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 8.79b - CFO 11.3b) / TA 59.9b) |
| Beneish M = -2.39 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of September 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 255.81 with a total of 4,195,173 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.24%, over one month by -5.88%, over three months by -7.25% and over the past year by -16.12%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 249.30 (which is 2.5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
McDonald’s has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.91. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MCD.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 315.4 | 23.3% |
P/E Trailing = 20.7709
P/E Forward = 18.6916
P/S = 6.5315
P/B = 146.0672
P/EG = 2.2521
Revenue TTM = 27.7b USD
EBIT TTM = 12.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 15.0b USD
Long Term Debt = 39.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 690.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 69.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 14.7b
Net Debt = 68.5b USD (calculated: Debt 69.3b - CCE 822.0m)
Enterprise Value = 249b USD (181b + Debt 69.3b - CCE 822.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.88 (Ebit TTM 12.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.62b)
EV/FCF = 32.14x (Enterprise Value 249b / FCF TTM 7.76b)
FCF Yield = 3.11% (FCF TTM 7.76b / Enterprise Value 249b)
FCF Margin = 28.01% (FCF TTM 7.76b / Revenue TTM 27.7b)
Net Margin = 31.72% (Net Income TTM 8.79b / Revenue TTM 27.7b)
Gross Margin = 57.39% ((Revenue TTM 27.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.8b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.01% (prev 55.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.16 (Enterprise Value 249b / Total Assets 59.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.34% (Interest Expense 1.62b / Debt 69.3b)
Taxrate = 21.44% (2.40b / 11.2b)
NOPAT = 10.1b (EBIT 12.8b * (1 - 21.44%))
Current Ratio = 1.08 (Total Current Assets 4.34b / Total Current Liabilities 4.02b)
Debt / Equity = -67.76 (negative equity) (Debt 69.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.02b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.56 (Net Debt 68.5b / EBITDA 15.0b)
Debt / FCF = 8.83 (Net Debt 68.5b / FCF TTM 7.76b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -1.57b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.71% (Net Income 8.79b / Total Assets 59.9b)
RoE = -561.2% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 8.79b / Total Stockholder Equity -1.57b)
RoCE = 33.45% (EBIT 12.8b / Capital Employed (Equity -1.57b + L.T.Debt 39.9b))
RoIC = 18.04% (NOPAT 10.1b / Invested Capital 55.8b)
WACC = 4.68% (E(181b)/V(250b) * Re(5.77%) + D(69.3b)/V(250b) * Rd(2.34%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.77% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -97.02 | Cagr: -0.76%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.58% ; FCFF base≈7.42b ; Y1≈8.32b ; Y5≈11.6b
[DCF] Fair Price = 151.1 (EV 175b - Net Debt 68.5b = Equity 107b / Shares 707.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 12.53% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 73.63 | EPS CAGR: 1.92% | SUE: 0.76 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.64 | Revenue CAGR: 3.11% | SUE: -0.21 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.40 | Chg30d=-0.61% | Revisions=-30% | Analysts=27
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.93 | Chg30d=+0.14% | Revisions=+3% | GrowthEPS=+6.0% | GrowthRev=+4.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=13.98 | Chg30d=-0.96% | Revisions=-71% | GrowthEPS=+8.1% | GrowthRev=+5.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -35% (up=25, down=54)