NCDL Stock Analysis: Nuveen Churchill Direct | NYSE

First-Lien Loans, Unitranche Debt, Junior Capital, Equity Securities

Total Rating 21

Safety 26

Buy Signal -0.52

Asset Management
Industry Rotation: +0.9

Market Cap: 563M
Avg Turnover: 3.09M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility26.1%

VaR 5^th Pctl4.74%

VaR vs Median9.99%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.36

Rel. Str. IBD25.9

Rel. Str. Peer Group33.5 pctl

Character TTM

Beta0.318

Beta Downside0.335

Hurst Exponent0.566

Choppyness37.6%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD26.78%

CAGR/Max DD-0.05

CAGR/Mean DD-0.16

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: 0.54
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 4.05%
Rev. Trend: 21.9%

Last SUE: -1.02
Qual. Beats: -2

Warnings

Overextended 1w

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality

Not enough history

Description: NCDL Nuveen Churchill Direct

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. is a U.S. business development company that seeks current income by making privately originated loans to private equity-owned middle-market businesses. Its portfolio is expected to focus on first-lien secured and unitranche loans, with selective investments in junior debt and equity-related securities.

As an externally managed, closed-end investment company, NCDL operates in the asset management sector. BDCs typically provide financing to private companies that may have limited access to public debt markets.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Fed rate cuts pressure floating-rate loan income and dividends
Middle-market borrower stress raises nonaccruals and NAV impairment risk
Private credit competition compresses spreads on new loan originations

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.5

Net Income: 46.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.35 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 43.40% < 20% (prev 8.70%; Δ 34.70% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 113.1m > Net Income 46.9m
Net Debt (1.08b) to EBITDA (63.3m): 17.12 < 3
Current Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct Total Current Assets and Liabilities)
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (49.4m) vs 12m ago -1.59% < -2%
Gross Margin: 58.26% > 18% (prev 58.45%; Δ -0.18% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 6.82% > 50% (prev 9.46%; Δ -2.64% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.93 > 6 (EBIT TTM 63.3m / Interest Expense TTM 68.2m)

Altman Z'' 1.06

A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 60.1m - Total Current Liabilities 0.0) / Total Assets 1.99b
B: -0.04 (Retained Earnings -81.9m / Total Assets 1.99b)
C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 63.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.03b)
D: 0.75 (Book Value of Equity 849.0m / Total Liabilities 1.14b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.06 = BB

What is the price of NCDL shares?

As of November 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.91 with a total of 500,053 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.18%, over one month by +8.87%, over three months by -1.20% and over the past year by -7.22%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.40 (which is 4.3% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).

Is NCDL a buy, sell or hold?

Nuveen Churchill Direct has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NCDL.

StrongBuy: 3
Buy: 0
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the NCDL price?

Analysts Target Price	13.7	15%

Nuveen Churchill Direct (NCDL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 November 2026

Market Cap USD = 562.5m (562.5m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.9895
P/E Forward = 8.3893
P/S = 9.2743
P/B = 0.6492
Revenue TTM = 138.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 63.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 63.3m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.09b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.08b USD (calculated: Debt 1.09b - CCE 5.00m)
Enterprise Value = 1.65b USD (562.5m + Debt 1.09b - CCE 5.00m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.93 (Ebit TTM 63.3m / Interest Expense TTM 68.2m)
EV/FCF = 14.55x (Enterprise Value 1.65b / FCF TTM 113.1m)
FCF Yield = 6.87% (FCF TTM 113.1m / Enterprise Value 1.65b)
FCF Margin = 81.70% (FCF TTM 113.1m / Revenue TTM 138.4m)
Net Margin = 33.85% (Net Income TTM 46.9m / Revenue TTM 138.4m)
Gross Margin = 58.26% ((Revenue TTM 138.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 57.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.34% (prev 43.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 1.65b / Total Assets 1.99b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.26% (Interest Expense 68.2m / Debt 1.09b)
Taxrate = 0.23% (149k / 65.8m)
NOPAT = 63.1m (EBIT 63.3m * (1 - 0.23%))
Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 60.1m / Total Current Liabilities 0.0)
Debt / Equity = 1.28 (Debt 1.09b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 849.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 17.12 (Net Debt 1.08b / EBITDA 63.3m)
Debt / FCF = 9.58 (Net Debt 1.08b / FCF TTM 113.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 867.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.31% (Net Income 46.9m / Total Assets 1.99b)
RoE = 5.40% (Net Income TTM 46.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 867.4m)
RoCE = 3.18% (EBIT 63.3m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.99b - Current Liab 0.0))
RoIC = 3.19% (EBIT 63.3m / (Assets 1.99b - Curr.Liab 0.0 - Cash 5.00m))
WACC = 6.41% (E(562.5m)/V(1.65b) * Re(6.71%) + D(1.09b)/V(1.65b) * Rd(6.26%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 6.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -86.91 | Cagr: -2.89%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈87.3m ; Y1≈100.1m ; Y5≈147.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 22.93 (EV 2.22b - Net Debt 1.08b = Equity 1.13b / Shares 49.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 21.94 | Revenue CAGR: 4.05% | SUE: -1.02 | # QB: -2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.58 | Chg30d=+0.44% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=-14.8% | GrowthRev=-13.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.54 | Chg30d=+0.33% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=-2.7% | GrowthRev=-1.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +30% (up=5, down=2)