NP Stock Analysis: Neptune Insurance Holdings | NYSE
Insurance Brokers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.116m USD | 12M Return: 23.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 21.4M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.9%
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 0.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) operates as a holding company for Neptune Flood Incorporated, an insurance agency that distributes residential and commercial flood insurance policies on behalf of insurance carrier partners across the United States. Through its agency network, the company also offers excess flood, parametric earthquake, and indemnity earthquake coverage. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.
As an insurance agency, Neptune generates revenue primarily through commissions on policies sold for its carrier partners, rather than underwriting risk directly. This agency model allows the company to focus on distribution and customer acquisition while leveraging the balance sheets of its carrier partners. Notably, Neptunes parametric earthquake product represents a differentiated offering in the market, as parametric policies pay claims based on a predefined triggering event (such as earthquake magnitude) rather than on traditional loss assessment, enabling faster claim payouts.
- NFIP reform boosts private flood demand and premium volume
- Hurricane catastrophe losses pressure carrier loss ratios and commissions
- Earthquake product expansion diversifies revenue beyond flood exposure
| Net Income: 39.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.55 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.52 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 16.75% < 20% (prev -10.59%; Δ 27.34% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.56 > 3% & CFO 56.9m > Net Income 39.0m |
| Net Debt (168.0m) to EBITDA (78.1m): 2.15 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.58 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (146.2m) vs 12m ago 8.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.16% > 18% (prev 65.82%; Δ 9.34% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 198.5% > 50% (prev 168.9%; Δ 29.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.34 > 6 (EBIT TTM 74.4m / Interest Expense TTM 17.1m) |
| A: 0.30 (Total Current Assets 83.2m - Total Current Liabilities 52.8m) / Total Assets 102.2m |
| B: -4.81 (Retained Earnings -491.2m / Total Assets 102.2m) |
| C: 0.81 (EBIT TTM 74.4m / Avg Total Assets 91.6m) |
| D: -0.68 (Book Value of Equity -222.2m / Total Liabilities 324.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -8.97 = D |
As of July 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 35.11 with a total of 1,598,242 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +17.03%, over one month by +15.19%, over three months by +35.51% and over the past year by +23.41%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 33.20 (which is 5.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Neptune Insurance Holdings has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Forward = 41.3223
P/S = 24.5025
Revenue TTM = 181.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 74.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 78.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 240.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 240.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 168.0m USD (calculated: Debt 240.0m - CCE 72.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.28b USD (4.12b + Debt 240.0m - CCE 72.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.34 (Ebit TTM 74.4m / Interest Expense TTM 17.1m)
EV/FCF = 76.80x (Enterprise Value 4.28b / FCF TTM 55.8m)
FCF Yield = 1.30% (FCF TTM 55.8m / Enterprise Value 4.28b)
FCF Margin = 30.68% (FCF TTM 55.8m / Revenue TTM 181.8m)
Net Margin = 21.45% (Net Income TTM 39.0m / Revenue TTM 181.8m)
Gross Margin = 75.16% ((Revenue TTM 181.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 45.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.43% (prev 69.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 41.91 (Enterprise Value 4.28b / Total Assets 102.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.14% (Interest Expense 17.1m / Debt 240.0m)
Taxrate = 32.57% (18.8m / 57.8m)
NOPAT = 50.2m (EBIT 74.4m * (1 - 32.57%))
Current Ratio = 1.58 (Total Current Assets 83.2m / Total Current Liabilities 52.8m)
Debt / Equity = -1.08 (negative equity) (Debt 240.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -222.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.15 (Net Debt 168.0m / EBITDA 78.1m)
Debt / FCF = 3.01 (Net Debt 168.0m / FCF TTM 55.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -230.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 42.58% (Net Income 39.0m / Total Assets 102.2m)
RoE = -16.92% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 39.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -230.4m)
RoCE = 778.3% (EBIT 74.4m / Capital Employed (Equity -230.4m + L.T.Debt 240.0m))
RoIC = 124.4% (NOPAT 50.2m / Invested Capital 40.3m)
WACC = 6.36% (E(4.12b)/V(4.36b) * Re(6.45%) + D(240.0m)/V(4.36b) * Rd(7.14%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 6.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 73.36 | Cagr: 29.50%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈52.0m ; Y1≈59.6m ; Y5≈87.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 12.28 (EV 1.32b - Net Debt 168.0m = Equity 1.15b / Shares 93.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.20 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.90 | Revenue CAGR: 37.11% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=+2.16% | Revisions=+44% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=+1.28% | Revisions=+58% | GrowthEPS=+31.6% | GrowthRev=+23.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=+2.07% | Revisions=+55% | GrowthEPS=+21.3% | GrowthRev=+17.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +65% (up=20, down=3)