(ONTO) Onto Innovation - Ratings and Ratios
Metrology, Inspection, Lithography, Software, Spare Parts
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 56.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 84.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.34% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.11 |
| Alpha | -43.07 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.35 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.295 |
| Beta | 2.209 |
| Beta Downside | 1.838 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 62.82% |
| Mean DD | 20.21% |
| Median DD | 10.98% |
Description: ONTO Onto Innovation November 05, 2025
Onto Innovation (NYSE: ONTO) designs, manufactures, and supports optical metrology and inspection tools for semiconductor and advanced-packaging producers, offering lithography systems, defect-inspection equipment, thin-film measurement instruments, and a suite of process-control software that spans standalone tools to factory-wide analytics.
Key operating metrics show the company generated ≈ $1.2 billion in revenue for FY 2023, a 10 % year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of roughly 44 % and an operating cash flow of $210 million, reflecting a solid conversion of sales into cash despite a capital-intensive product mix.
Onto’s growth is tightly linked to macro-level semiconductor equipment spending, which the SEMI forecast projects to rise ~7 % CAGR through 2027, driven by AI-centric chips, 5G infrastructure, and automotive electrification-all of which elevate demand for high-precision metrology and yield-management solutions.
The firm’s backlog sits near $1.5 billion, indicating a multi-quarter order pipeline, while R&D intensity remains around 12 % of revenue, underscoring continued investment in next-generation inspection and lithography capabilities.
For a deeper quantitative comparison of Onto Innovation’s valuation metrics, you might find the ValueRay platform’s side-by-side analysis useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (175.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 60.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.27pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 137.9% (prev 139.4%; Δ -1.49pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 289.3m > Net Income 175.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-589.0m) to EBITDA (229.6m) ratio: -2.57 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 9.49 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (49.1m) change vs 12m ago -1.18% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 50.72% (prev 52.10%; Δ -1.38pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 47.06% (prev 45.44%; Δ 1.61pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -9.46 (EBITDA TTM 229.6m / Interest Expense TTM -18.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 9.93
| (A) 0.63 = (Total Current Assets 1.54b - Total Current Liabilities 162.9m) / Total Assets 2.19b |
| (B) 0.34 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 733.3m / Total Assets 2.19b |
| (C) 0.08 = EBIT TTM 176.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.13b |
| (D) 3.94 = Book Value of Equity 726.9m / Total Liabilities 184.5m |
| Total Rating: 9.93 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 57.48
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.89% |
| 3. FCF Margin 26.07% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.01 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -2.57 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -6.21)% |
| 7. RoE 8.96% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 16.65% |
| 9. EPS Trend -14.32% |
What is the price of ONTO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.56%, over one month by +9.54%, over three months by +30.98% and over the past year by -12.80%.
Is ONTO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ONTO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 157 | 9.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 157 | 9.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 161 | 12.5% |
ONTO Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Trailing = 35.8254
P/E Forward = 20.6612
P/S = 6.3001
P/B = 3.1542
P/EG = 0.6893
Beta = 1.477
Revenue TTM = 1.00b USD
EBIT TTM = 176.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 229.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 14.1m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.62m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -589.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.34b USD (6.31b + Debt 14.1m - CCE 983.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.46 (Ebit TTM 176.0m / Interest Expense TTM -18.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.89% (FCF TTM 261.3m / Enterprise Value 5.34b)
FCF Margin = 26.07% (FCF TTM 261.3m / Revenue TTM 1.00b)
Net Margin = 17.46% (Net Income TTM 175.0m / Revenue TTM 1.00b)
Gross Margin = 50.72% ((Revenue TTM 1.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 493.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 50.70% (prev 48.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.44 (Enterprise Value 5.34b / Total Assets 2.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 22.51% (Interest Expense 3.17m / Debt 14.1m)
Taxrate = 11.74% (3.75m / 32.0m)
NOPAT = 155.4m (EBIT 176.0m * (1 - 11.74%))
Current Ratio = 9.49 (Total Current Assets 1.54b / Total Current Liabilities 162.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 14.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.57 (Net Debt -589.0m / EBITDA 229.6m)
Debt / FCF = -2.25 (Net Debt -589.0m / FCF TTM 261.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.95b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.01% (Net Income 175.0m / Total Assets 2.19b)
RoE = 8.96% (Net Income TTM 175.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.95b)
RoCE = 8.95% (EBIT 176.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.95b + L.T.Debt 14.1m))
RoIC = 7.96% (NOPAT 155.4m / Invested Capital 1.95b)
WACC = 14.16% (E(6.31b)/V(6.33b) * Re(14.15%) + D(14.1m)/V(6.33b) * Rd(22.51%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 14.15% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.46%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.09% ; FCFE base≈245.4m ; Y1≈302.7m ; Y5≈516.5m
Fair Price DCF = 77.36 (DCF Value 3.84b / Shares Outstanding 49.7m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -14.32 | EPS CAGR: -7.45% | SUE: 0.58 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 16.65 | Revenue CAGR: -0.89% | SUE: -0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.25 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2025-12-31): EPS=4.96 | Chg30d=+0.049 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=-7.2% | Growth Revenue=+1.7%
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.07 | Chg30d=+0.439 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+22.4% | Growth Revenue=+17.2%
Additional Sources for ONTO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle