ONTO Stock Analysis: Onto Innovation | NYSE
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 10.831m USD | 12M Return: 50.6% | US6833441057 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 244M
EPS Trend: 72.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 92.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE: ONTO) is a U.S.-based provider of process control tools used in semiconductor and advanced packaging manufacturing. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and supports macro-defect inspection, metrology, lithography systems, and associated process control and yield management software, with operations spanning the United States, Asia, and Europe. Its products serve a broad customer base that includes semiconductor device manufacturers, silicon wafer suppliers, LED and MEMS producers, CMOS image sensor makers, RF filter manufacturers, and data storage device fabricators. Founded in 1940 and headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts, the company offers both standalone tool solutions and factory-wide software suites, along with spare parts, services, and software licensing.
The company sits within the Semiconductor Materials & Equipment sub-industry (GICS Information Technology), where metrology and inspection tools are essential to yield management at advanced process nodes and increasingly in advanced packaging workflows such as chiplet integration and 3D stacking. Onto Innovation generates revenue not only from initial system sales but also from recurring software licensing, spare parts, and service contracts tied to its installed base.
- Advanced packaging lithography demand surges from AI chip buildouts
- China revenue exposure faces tightening US export controls
- Software and services mix lifts gross margins above peers
| Net Income: 132.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 211.6% < 20% (prev 129.2%; Δ 82.44% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 266.2m > Net Income 132.6m |
| Net Debt (-392.9m) to EBITDA (248.3m): -1.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 9.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (49.7m) vs 12m ago 1.36% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.36% > 18% (prev 51.54%; Δ -1.18% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.37% > 50% (prev 48.42%; Δ -10.06% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.64 (Total Current Assets 2.64b - Total Current Liabilities 271.6m) / Total Assets 3.70b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 837.6m / Total Assets 3.70b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 158.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.92b) |
| D: 1.08 (Book Value of Equity 1.92b / Total Liabilities 1.78b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.44 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 337.4m/285.3m, Revenue 1.12b/1.04b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 51.54% / 50.36%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 1.12b / 1.04b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 132.6m - CFO 266.2m) / TA 3.70b) |
| Beneish M = -2.83 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 198.68 with a total of 830,344 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.98%, over one month by -29.62%, over three months by -31.79% and over the past year by +50.60%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 169.10 (which is 14.9% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Onto Innovation has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.75. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ONTO.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 387.5 | 95% |
P/E Trailing = 82.9699
P/E Forward = 22.8311
P/S = 9.6691
P/B = 3.4902
P/EG = 0.7604
Revenue TTM = 1.12b USD
EBIT TTM = 158.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 248.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.47b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.22m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.49b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 17.5m
Net Debt = -392.9m USD (calculated: Debt 1.49b - CCE 1.88b)
Enterprise Value = 10.4b USD (10.8b + Debt 1.49b - CCE 1.88b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 158.1m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 43.44x (Enterprise Value 10.4b / FCF TTM 240.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.30% (FCF TTM 240.3m / Enterprise Value 10.4b)
FCF Margin = 21.45% (FCF TTM 240.3m / Revenue TTM 1.12b)
Net Margin = 11.84% (Net Income TTM 132.6m / Revenue TTM 1.12b)
Gross Margin = 50.36% ((Revenue TTM 1.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 556.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.41% (prev 50.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.82 (Enterprise Value 10.4b / Total Assets 3.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 1.49b)
Taxrate = 16.10% (25.4m / 158.1m)
NOPAT = 132.6m (EBIT 158.1m * (1 - 16.10%))
Current Ratio = 6.43 (Total Current Assets 2.64b / Total Current Liabilities 411.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 1.49b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.92b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.58 (Net Debt -392.9m / EBITDA 248.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.64 (Net Debt -392.9m / FCF TTM 240.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.54% (Net Income 132.6m / Total Assets 3.70b)
RoE = 6.50% (Net Income TTM 132.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.04b)
RoCE = 4.50% (EBIT 158.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.04b + L.T.Debt 1.47b))
RoIC = 3.93% (NOPAT 132.6m / Invested Capital 3.38b)
WACC = 12.33% (E(10.8b)/V(12.3b) * Re(14.02%) + D(1.49b)/V(12.3b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 14.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 12.54%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -0.21 | Cagr: 0.04%
[DCF] Terminal Value 62.22% ; FCFF base≈243.7m ; Y1≈237.7m ; Y5≈237.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 53.38 (EV 2.23b - Net Debt -392.9m = Equity 2.62b / Shares 49.1m; r=12.33% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -3.44% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 72.76 | EPS CAGR: 11.74% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 92.77 | Revenue CAGR: 10.63% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.30 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.11 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+64.1% | GrowthRev=+43.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.70 | Chg30d=+0.36% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+44.3% | GrowthRev=+30.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +62% (up=5, down=0)