PFS Stock Analysis: Provident Financial | NYSE
Banks - Regional | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.124m USD | 12M Return: 32.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 23.9M
EPS Trend: 19.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Provident Financial Services, Inc. is the holding company for Provident Bank, offering a full suite of banking, lending, and wealth management products to individuals, families, and businesses across the United States. Its core services span deposit accounts (checking, savings, money market, CDs, IRAs), a diversified loan portfolio (commercial real estate, commercial business, residential mortgages, construction, and consumer loans such as home equity and auto), and ancillary offerings including cash management, online and mobile banking, business credit cards, wealth and trust services, insurance agency operations, and real estate acquired through foreclosure.
The company is classified within the Regional Banks sub-industry of the Financials sector, a category that typically consists of mid-sized commercial banks focused on geographically defined markets and relationship-driven lending. Headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey, Provident traces its origins to 1839, giving it one of the longer operating histories among U.S. community and regional banking franchises.
- Net interest margin compresses as deposit costs outpace loan repricing
- Commercial real estate loan concentration raises credit quality scrutiny
- Deposit growth slows amid intense regional banking competition
| Net Income: 306.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.12k% < 20% (prev -1.27k%; Δ 143.9% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 438.4m > Net Income 306.5m |
| Net Debt (-571.3m) to EBITDA (490.8m): -1.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.18 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (130.6m) vs 12m ago 0.16% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.43% > 18% (prev 51.71%; Δ 11.73% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.65% > 50% (prev 5.02%; Δ 0.63% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.84 > 6 (EBIT TTM 426.5m / Interest Expense TTM 509.9m) |
| A: -0.62 (Total Current Assets 3.56b - Total Current Liabilities 19.2b) / Total Assets 25.2b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 1.20b / Total Assets 25.2b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 426.5m / Avg Total Assets 24.7b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 2.86b / Total Liabilities 22.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.68 = D |
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 97.7m/91.8m, Revenue 1.40b/1.22b) |
| GMI: 0.82 (GM 51.71% / 63.43%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.86) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 1.40b / 1.22b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 306.5m - CFO 438.4m) / TA 25.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.55 with a total of 958,374 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.30%, over one month by +3.93%, over three months by +10.18% and over the past year by +32.83%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 22.90 (which is 2.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Provident Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.20. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PFS.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 25.6 | 8.6% |
P/E Trailing = 10.2
P/E Forward = 10.0705
P/S = 3.5255
P/B = 1.0911
P/EG = 1.6065
Revenue TTM = 1.40b USD
EBIT TTM = 426.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 490.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.80b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 95.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.89b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -571.3m USD (calculated: Debt 2.89b - CCE 3.46b)
Enterprise Value = 2.55b USD (3.12b + Debt 2.89b - CCE 3.46b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.84 (Ebit TTM 426.5m / Interest Expense TTM 509.9m)
EV/FCF = 6.04x (Enterprise Value 2.55b / FCF TTM 422.7m)
FCF Yield = 16.56% (FCF TTM 422.7m / Enterprise Value 2.55b)
FCF Margin = 30.26% (FCF TTM 422.7m / Revenue TTM 1.40b)
Net Margin = 21.95% (Net Income TTM 306.5m / Revenue TTM 1.40b)
Gross Margin = 63.43% ((Revenue TTM 1.40b - Cost of Revenue TTM 510.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 65.60% (prev 64.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 2.55b / Total Assets 25.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 17.64% (Interest Expense 509.9m / Debt 2.89b)
Taxrate = 28.12% (119.9m / 426.5m)
NOPAT = 306.5m (EBIT 426.5m * (1 - 28.12%))
Current Ratio = 0.18 (Total Current Assets 3.56b / Total Current Liabilities 19.2b)
Debt / Equity = 1.01 (Debt 2.89b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.86b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.16 (Net Debt -571.3m / EBITDA 490.8m)
Debt / FCF = -1.35 (Net Debt -571.3m / FCF TTM 422.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.79b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.24% (Net Income 306.5m / Total Assets 25.2b)
RoE = 10.98% (Net Income TTM 306.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.79b)
RoCE = 7.63% (EBIT 426.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.79b + L.T.Debt 2.80b))
RoIC = 5.12% (NOPAT 306.5m / Invested Capital 5.98b)
WACC = 10.83% (E(3.12b)/V(6.01b) * Re(9.12%) + D(2.89b)/V(6.01b) * Rd(17.64%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 9.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.56 | Cagr: 27.92%
[DCF] Terminal Value 65.39% ; FCFF base≈442.2m ; Y1≈405.4m ; Y5≈357.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 35.28 (EV 4.03b - Net Debt -571.3m = Equity 4.60b / Shares 130.3m; r=10.83% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -10.37% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 19.05 | EPS CAGR: 6.69% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.82 | Revenue CAGR: 39.69% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=-0.05% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.58 | Chg30d=-0.39% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.36 | Chg30d=+0.01% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+5.0% | GrowthRev=+6.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.52 | Chg30d=+0.60% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+7.1% | GrowthRev=+6.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -21% (up=6, down=10)