(PFS) Provident Financial - Overview
Stock: Deposits, Loans, Mortgages, Wealth, Insurance
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 5.23% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 7.80% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.80% |
| Payout Consistency | 96.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 42.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 33.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.82 |
| Alpha | 16.32 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.931 |
| Beta Downside | 1.095 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 41.08% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.13 |
Description: PFS Provident Financial January 13, 2026
Provident Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE:PFS) is the holding company for Provident Bank, a regional U.S. bank headquartered in Jersey City, NJ, that offers a full suite of deposit, loan, cash-management, and wealth-management products to individuals, families, and businesses.
The bank’s deposit franchise includes traditional savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, money-market, CDs, and IRA accounts, while its loan book spans commercial real-estate financing (multi-family, retail, industrial, office), commercial business loans, fixed- and adjustable-rate residential mortgages, construction loans, and consumer credit such as home-equity loans, personal loans, unsecured lines, and auto/RV financing. Ancillary services comprise remote deposit capture, payroll origination, escrow management, online/mobile banking, business credit cards, and a wealth-management platform that delivers investment management, trust/estate administration, financial planning, tax services, and insurance/annuity sales.
Recent performance metrics (FY 2023) show a net interest margin of roughly 4.1%, loan growth of about 5% YoY, deposit growth near 3%, and an efficiency ratio in the high-50s, indicating solid cost control. Non-performing assets remain low at ~0.6% of total loans, but the bank’s exposure to commercial-real-estate (CRE) assets makes it sensitive to sector-specific stress and to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cycle, which simultaneously lifts NIM and heightens credit-risk pressure.
Given the blend of stable retail deposits and a diversified loan portfolio, PFS’s outlook hinges on how regional banks navigate the evolving rate environment and CRE market dynamics; tracking changes in NIM, loan-loss provisions, and CRE loan-to-value ratios will be critical for assessing upside potential.
For a deeper dive into PFS’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you might explore the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: 291.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -790.5% < 20% (prev -1613 %; Δ 822.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 373.3m > Net Income 291.2m |
| Net Debt (2.31b) to EBITDA (457.9m): 5.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (130.6m) vs 12m ago 0.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 62.69% > 18% (prev 0.45%; Δ 6224 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.64% > 50% (prev 4.05%; Δ 1.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.58 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 457.9m / Interest Expense TTM 512.2m) |
Altman Z'' -2.59
| A: -0.44 (Total Current Assets 3.47b - Total Current Liabilities 14.40b) / Total Assets 24.98b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 1.15b / Total Assets 24.98b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 295.9m / Avg Total Assets 24.52b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 1.08b / Total Liabilities 22.15b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -2.59 = D |
Beneish M -3.20
| DSRI: 0.74 (Receivables 95.8m/91.2m, Revenue 1.38b/974.2m) |
| GMI: 0.72 (GM 62.69% / 45.28%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.86 / AQ_t-1 0.87) |
| SGI: 1.42 (Revenue 1.38b / 974.2m) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 291.2m - CFO 373.3m) / TA 24.98b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.20 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of PFS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.45%, over one month by +17.95%, over three months by +31.69% and over the past year by +27.88%.
Is PFS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PFS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 25 | 5.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 25 | 5.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 28.3 | 18.9% |
PFS Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
P/E Forward = 9.1827
P/S = 3.3363
P/B = 1.0244
P/EG = 1.84
Revenue TTM = 1.38b USD
EBIT TTM = 295.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 457.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.52b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 102.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 2.52b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.31b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.03b USD (2.89b + Debt 2.52b - CCE 3.38b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.58 (Ebit TTM 295.9m / Interest Expense TTM 512.2m)
EV/FCF = 5.55x (Enterprise Value 2.03b / FCF TTM 366.6m)
FCF Yield = 18.02% (FCF TTM 366.6m / Enterprise Value 2.03b)
FCF Margin = 26.52% (FCF TTM 366.6m / Revenue TTM 1.38b)
Net Margin = 21.06% (Net Income TTM 291.2m / Revenue TTM 1.38b)
Gross Margin = 62.69% ((Revenue TTM 1.38b - Cost of Revenue TTM 515.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.26% (prev 60.70%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.08 (Enterprise Value 2.03b / Total Assets 24.98b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.06% (Interest Expense 127.4m / Debt 2.52b)
Taxrate = 25.67% (28.8m / 112.2m)
NOPAT = 219.9m (EBIT 295.9m * (1 - 25.67%))
Current Ratio = 0.24 (Total Current Assets 3.47b / Total Current Liabilities 14.40b)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 2.52b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.83b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.04 (Net Debt 2.31b / EBITDA 457.9m)
Debt / FCF = 6.29 (Net Debt 2.31b / FCF TTM 366.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.74b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.19% (Net Income 291.2m / Total Assets 24.98b)
RoE = 10.62% (Net Income TTM 291.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.74b)
RoCE = 5.63% (EBIT 295.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.74b + L.T.Debt 2.52b))
RoIC = 4.14% (NOPAT 219.9m / Invested Capital 5.32b)
WACC = 6.74% (E(2.89b)/V(5.41b) * Re(9.34%) + D(2.52b)/V(5.41b) * Rd(5.06%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 9.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 21.11%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.47% ; FCFF base≈390.0m ; Y1≈481.1m ; Y5≈819.4m
Fair Price DCF = 124.2 (EV 18.52b - Net Debt 2.31b = Equity 16.22b / Shares 130.6m; r=6.74% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -10.16 | EPS CAGR: 2.66% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.18 | Revenue CAGR: 33.02% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 14
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.37 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+5.7% | Growth Revenue=+7.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.58 | Chg30d=+0.008 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+8.6% | Growth Revenue=+5.6%