RIO Stock Analysis: Rio Tinto | NYSE

Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 162.121m USD | 12M Return: 64.7% | US7672041008 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Iron Ore, Aluminium, Copper, Lithium
Total Rating 62
Safety 83
Buy Signal -0.30
Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Industry Rotation: +40.6
Market Cap: 162B
Avg Turnover: 229M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility32.5%
VaR 5th Pctl5.73%
VaR vs Median6.90%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.69
Rel. Str. IBD63.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group61.5
Character TTM
Beta1.026
Beta Downside0.808
Hurst Exponent0.437
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD24.19%
CAGR/Max DD1.02
CAGR/Mean DD3.07

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +4.5% 23
Feb +0.2% 7
Mar +1.9% 21
Apr +0.8% 5
May -0.8% 16
Jun -1.2% 10
Jul +0.5% 17
Aug -3.1% 40
Sep +0.8% 14
Oct -2.2% 42
Nov +0.3% 0
Dec +5.7% 48

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: RIO Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto Group is a globally diversified mining and metals company that explores, mines, and processes mineral resources across three core segments: Iron Ore, Aluminium and Lithium, and Copper. Its iron ore operations, along with salt and gypsum production, are concentrated in Western Australia, while the aluminium and lithium segment spans bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminium smelting, recycling, and lithium processing. The Copper segment includes mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other by-products, with ongoing exploration activities.

The company operates a vertically integrated business model, owning and managing open pit and underground mines, refineries, smelters, processing plants, power generation, and shipping facilities. Headquartered in London and founded in 1873, Rio Tinto is classified within the Materials sector under the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry, reflecting its broad exposure across the mining value chain.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Iron ore prices fall on weakening Chinese steel demand
  • Copper production ramps up at Oyu Tolgoi underground mine
  • Shareholder returns boosted by record special dividends
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.5
Net Income: 12.1b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.01 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 10.68% < 20% (prev 13.38%; Δ -2.70% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 19.2b > Net Income 12.1b
Net Debt (14.8b) to EBITDA (23.3b): 0.63 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.42 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.64b) vs 12m ago 0.48% < -2%
Gross Margin: 26.70% > 18% (prev 26.39%; Δ 0.30% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 48.50% > 50% (prev 44.67%; Δ 3.84% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.45 > 6 (EBIT TTM 16.5b / Interest Expense TTM 945.0m)
Altman Z'' 3.51
A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 22.1b - Total Current Liabilities 15.5b) / Total Assets 134b
B: 0.37 (Retained Earnings 49.3b / Total Assets 134b)
C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 16.5b / Avg Total Assets 127b)
D: 1.06 (Book Value of Equity 65.5b / Total Liabilities 61.8b)
Altman-Z'' = 3.51 = A
Beneish M -3.02
DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 225.0m/221.0m, Revenue 61.7b/54.0b)
GMI: 0.99 (GM 26.39% / 26.70%)
AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.17)
SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 61.7b / 54.0b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 12.1b - CFO 19.2b) / TA 134b)
Beneish M = -3.02 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of RIO shares?

As of August 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 95.68 with a total of 2,040,621 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.28%, over one month by +4.81%, over three months by -10.78% and over the past year by +64.67%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 91.30 (which is 4.6% or 2 ATR below the current price).

Is RIO a buy, sell or hold?

Rio Tinto has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold RIO.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the RIO price?
Analysts Target Price 105.9 10.6%
Rio Tinto (RIO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 08 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 162b (162b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.7638
P/E Forward = 11.5741
P/S = 2.6236
P/B = 2.4061
P/EG = 5.6909
Revenue TTM = 61.7b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.5b USD
EBITDA TTM = 23.3b USD
Long Term Debt = 20.2b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.73b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.44b
Net Debt = 14.8b USD (calculated: Debt 24.3b - CCE 9.51b)
Enterprise Value = 177b USD (162b + Debt 24.3b - CCE 9.51b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.45 (Ebit TTM 16.5b / Interest Expense TTM 945.0m)
EV/FCF = 30.70x (Enterprise Value 177b / FCF TTM 5.76b)
FCF Yield = 3.26% (FCF TTM 5.76b / Enterprise Value 177b)
FCF Margin = 9.34% (FCF TTM 5.76b / Revenue TTM 61.7b)
Net Margin = 19.59% (Net Income TTM 12.1b / Revenue TTM 61.7b)
Gross Margin = 26.70% ((Revenue TTM 61.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 45.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.04% (prev 25.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.33 (Enterprise Value 177b / Total Assets 134b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.89% (Interest Expense 945.0m / Debt 24.3b)
Taxrate = 24.71% (4.23b / 17.1b)
NOPAT = 12.4b (EBIT 16.5b * (1 - 24.71%))
Current Ratio = 1.42 (Total Current Assets 22.1b / Total Current Liabilities 15.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 24.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 65.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.63 (Net Debt 14.8b / EBITDA 23.3b)
Debt / FCF = 2.57 (Net Debt 14.8b / FCF TTM 5.76b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 60.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.50% (Net Income 12.1b / Total Assets 134b)
RoE = 20.04% (Net Income TTM 12.1b / Total Stockholder Equity 60.3b)
RoCE = 20.49% (EBIT 16.5b / Capital Employed (Equity 60.3b + L.T.Debt 20.2b))
RoIC = 10.65% (NOPAT 12.4b / Invested Capital 117b)
WACC = 8.72% (E(162b)/V(186b) * Re(9.59%) + D(24.3b)/V(186b) * Rd(3.89%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.65 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.50% ; FCFF base≈5.54b ; Y1≈6.06b ; Y5≈7.61b
[DCF] Fair Price = 75.30 (EV 109b - Net Debt 14.8b = Equity 94.5b / Shares 1.26b; r=8.72% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 10.78% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 50.89 | EPS CAGR: 12.58% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 83.41 | Revenue CAGR: 5.22% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.72 | Chg30d=+0.60% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+30.3% | GrowthRev=+9.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.85 | Chg30d=-0.47% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+1.5% | GrowthRev=+2.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -31% (up=3, down=7)