RIO Stock Analysis: Rio Tinto | NYSE
Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 151.043m USD | 12M Return: 48.6% | US7672041008 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 173M
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RIO) is a London-headquartered, UK-domiciled mining major that explores, mines, and processes mineral resources across more than 30 countries. The company was founded in 1873 and has been listed on the NYSE as an ADR since 1990. It sits within the GICS Materials sector under the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry, a classification that groups together producers of multiple commodities exposed to global industrial and infrastructure demand cycles.
Operations are organised into three reporting segments. The Iron Ore segment is centred on mining in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, alongside salt and gypsum production. The Aluminium and Lithium segment covers the full aluminium value chain - bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminium smelting, and aluminium recycling - plus the mining and processing of lithium, a commodity tied to the energy-transition supply chain. The Copper segment mines and refines copper along with by-products such as gold, silver, and molybdenum, and carries out exploration activities.
Rio Tinto owns and operates open-pit and underground mines, refineries, smelters, processing plants, power-generation facilities, and shipping infrastructure, reflecting the vertically integrated model typical of large diversified miners. The company is generally regarded as one of the worlds largest producers of iron ore and a major supplier of copper, aluminium, and lithium raw materials to global industrial customers.
- Iron ore prices swing on China steel demand outlook
- Copper segment expansion accelerates energy transition supply
- Lithium and aluminum margins face oversupply pressure
- Australia and Mongolia tax regimes tighten royalty exposure
| Net Income: 12.1b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.68% < 20% (prev 13.38%; Δ -2.70% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 19.2b > Net Income 12.1b |
| Net Debt (14.8b) to EBITDA (23.3b): 0.63 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.64b) vs 12m ago 0.48% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.70% > 18% (prev 26.39%; Δ 0.30% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 48.50% > 50% (prev 44.67%; Δ 3.84% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.45 > 6 (EBIT TTM 16.5b / Interest Expense TTM 945.0m) |
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 22.1b - Total Current Liabilities 15.5b) / Total Assets 134b |
| B: 0.37 (Retained Earnings 49.3b / Total Assets 134b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 16.5b / Avg Total Assets 127b) |
| D: 1.06 (Book Value of Equity 65.5b / Total Liabilities 61.8b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.51 = A |
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 225.0m/221.0m, Revenue 61.7b/54.0b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 26.39% / 26.70%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.17) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 61.7b / 54.0b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 12.1b - CFO 19.2b) / TA 134b) |
| Beneish M = -3.02 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 94.78 with a total of 1,301,749 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.61%, over one month by -8.64%, over three months by +8.24% and over the past year by +48.61%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 91.20 (which is 3.8% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Rio Tinto has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold RIO.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 103.7 | 9.4% |
P/E Trailing = 12.7569
P/E Forward = 12.0773
P/S = 2.4443
P/B = 2.4221
P/EG = 5.6909
Revenue TTM = 61.7b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.5b USD
EBITDA TTM = 23.3b USD
Long Term Debt = 20.2b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.73b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.44b
Net Debt = 14.8b USD (calculated: Debt 24.3b - CCE 9.51b)
Enterprise Value = 166b USD (151b + Debt 24.3b - CCE 9.51b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.45 (Ebit TTM 16.5b / Interest Expense TTM 945.0m)
EV/FCF = 28.77x (Enterprise Value 166b / FCF TTM 5.76b)
FCF Yield = 3.48% (FCF TTM 5.76b / Enterprise Value 166b)
FCF Margin = 9.34% (FCF TTM 5.76b / Revenue TTM 61.7b)
Net Margin = 19.59% (Net Income TTM 12.1b / Revenue TTM 61.7b)
Gross Margin = 26.70% ((Revenue TTM 61.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 45.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.04% (prev 25.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.24 (Enterprise Value 166b / Total Assets 134b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.89% (Interest Expense 945.0m / Debt 24.3b)
Taxrate = 24.71% (4.23b / 17.1b)
NOPAT = 12.4b (EBIT 16.5b * (1 - 24.71%))
Current Ratio = 1.42 (Total Current Assets 22.1b / Total Current Liabilities 15.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 24.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 65.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.63 (Net Debt 14.8b / EBITDA 23.3b)
Debt / FCF = 2.57 (Net Debt 14.8b / FCF TTM 5.76b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 60.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.50% (Net Income 12.1b / Total Assets 134b)
RoE = 20.04% (Net Income TTM 12.1b / Total Stockholder Equity 60.3b)
RoCE = 20.49% (EBIT 16.5b / Capital Employed (Equity 60.3b + L.T.Debt 20.2b))
RoIC = 10.65% (NOPAT 12.4b / Invested Capital 117b)
WACC = 8.66% (E(151b)/V(175b) * Re(9.58%) + D(24.3b)/V(175b) * Rd(3.89%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.65 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.71% ; FCFF base≈5.54b ; Y1≈6.06b ; Y5≈7.61b
[DCF] Fair Price = 76.24 (EV 110b - Net Debt 14.8b = Equity 95.7b / Shares 1.25b; r=8.66% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 10.78% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 50.89 | EPS CAGR: 12.58% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 83.41 | Revenue CAGR: 5.22% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.60 | Chg30d=-0.60% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+28.5% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.59 | Chg30d=-0.69% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=-0.1% | GrowthRev=+2.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +15% (up=6, down=4)