(RIO) Rio Tinto - Overview
Stock: Iron Ore, Copper, Aluminium, Bauxite, Borates
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.03% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 6.83% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -21.11% |
| Payout Consistency | 86.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 57.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.92% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.89 |
| Alpha | 53.79 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.635 |
| Beta Downside | 0.584 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 24.19% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.69 |
Description: RIO Rio Tinto January 27, 2026
Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RIO) is a globally diversified miner headquartered in London, operating four primary segments-Iron Ore, Aluminium, Copper, and Minerals-that span exploration, extraction, processing, and logistics across continents.
The Iron Ore segment, centered in Western Australia, supplies bulk iron ore and also produces salt and gypsum; the Aluminium segment covers the full value chain from bauxite mining to alumina refining, smelting, and recycling; the Copper segment extracts copper along with gold, silver, molybdenum, and related by-products; and the Minerals segment handles borates, titanium-dioxide feedstock, iron concentrate, diamonds, and emerging battery-material projects such as lithium. All segments are supported by a network of open-pit and underground mines, refineries, smelters, power generation, and shipping assets.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023-FY 2024):
• Iron ore sales reached 307 Mt, a 3 % increase YoY, driven by higher demand from China’s steel re-recovery (source: Rio Tinto annual report 2024).
• Copper production rose 5 % to 1.35 Mt, while the LME copper price averaged $4,200/lb in 2024, reflecting tightening supply and accelerating electric-vehicle demand.
• The Minerals segment’s lithium development in Western Australia targets a 2026 ramp-up to 30,000 t of LCE, aligning with the projected 25 % CAGR in global battery-grade lithium demand through 2030 (source: BloombergNEF).
These figures underscore exposure to commodity-price cycles and the strategic shift toward battery-critical minerals.
Given the material impact of commodity volatility and the nascent stage of Rio Tinto’s lithium projects, analysts should monitor price trends, regulatory approvals, and capex execution before forming a definitive valuation.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, consider reviewing the detailed valuation models on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income: 20.96b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.16 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.69% < 20% (prev 12.38%; Δ -5.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 > 3% & CFO 31.11b > Net Income 20.96b |
| Net Debt (14.62b) to EBITDA (39.23b): 0.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.64b) vs 12m ago 0.46% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 27.66% > 18% (prev 0.34%; Δ 2733 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 98.84% > 50% (prev 85.57%; Δ 13.27% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.58 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 39.23b / Interest Expense TTM 1.89b) |
Altman Z'' 4.22
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 20.96b - Total Current Liabilities 13.74b) / Total Assets 120.81b |
| B: 0.36 (Retained Earnings 43.38b / Total Assets 120.81b) |
| C: 0.25 (EBIT TTM 27.60b / Avg Total Assets 109.18b) |
| D: 0.92 (Book Value of Equity 53.88b / Total Liabilities 58.84b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.22 = AA |
Beneish M -3.36
| DSRI: 0.04 (Receivables 221.0m/3.85b, Revenue 107.92b/83.48b) |
| GMI: 1.22 (GM 27.66% / 33.67%) |
| AQI: 1.22 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.14) |
| SGI: 1.29 (Revenue 107.92b / 83.48b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 20.96b - CFO 31.11b) / TA 120.81b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.36 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of RIO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.68%, over one month by +19.38%, over three months by +37.79% and over the past year by +65.17%.
Is RIO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the RIO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 88.4 | -8.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 88.4 | -8.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 116.9 | 20.7% |
RIO Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 13.0719
P/S = 3.3853
P/B = 3.3089
Revenue TTM = 107.92b USD
EBIT TTM = 27.60b USD
EBITDA TTM = 39.23b USD
Long Term Debt = 21.58b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 875.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.64b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 14.62b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 196.20b USD (181.89b + Debt 23.64b - CCE 9.33b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.58 (Ebit TTM 27.60b / Interest Expense TTM 1.89b)
EV/FCF = 15.46x (Enterprise Value 196.20b / FCF TTM 12.69b)
FCF Yield = 6.47% (FCF TTM 12.69b / Enterprise Value 196.20b)
FCF Margin = 11.76% (FCF TTM 12.69b / Revenue TTM 107.92b)
Net Margin = 19.42% (Net Income TTM 20.96b / Revenue TTM 107.92b)
Gross Margin = 27.66% ((Revenue TTM 107.92b - Cost of Revenue TTM 78.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.99% (prev 27.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.62 (Enterprise Value 196.20b / Total Assets 120.81b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.32% (Interest Expense 548.7m / Debt 23.64b)
Taxrate = 32.67% (2.22b / 6.79b)
NOPAT = 18.58b (EBIT 27.60b * (1 - 32.67%))
Current Ratio = 1.53 (Total Current Assets 20.96b / Total Current Liabilities 13.74b)
Debt / Equity = 0.41 (Debt 23.64b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 58.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.37 (Net Debt 14.62b / EBITDA 39.23b)
Debt / FCF = 1.15 (Net Debt 14.62b / FCF TTM 12.69b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 55.82b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.20% (Net Income 20.96b / Total Assets 120.81b)
RoE = 37.55% (Net Income TTM 20.96b / Total Stockholder Equity 55.82b)
RoCE = 35.65% (EBIT 27.60b / Capital Employed (Equity 55.82b + L.T.Debt 21.58b))
RoIC = 26.20% (NOPAT 18.58b / Invested Capital 70.91b)
WACC = 7.49% (E(181.89b)/V(205.53b) * Re(8.26%) + D(23.64b)/V(205.53b) * Rd(2.32%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 8.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.14%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.63% ; FCFF base≈13.34b ; Y1≈12.12b ; Y5≈10.61b
Fair Price DCF = 98.32 (EV 210.89b - Net Debt 14.62b = Equity 196.26b / Shares 2.00b; r=7.49% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -11.30% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -10.27 | EPS CAGR: -63.18% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -33.04 | Revenue CAGR: 4.03% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.50 | Chg30d=+0.194 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+13.1% | Growth Revenue=+6.0%