STEL Stock Analysis: Stellar Bancorp | NYSE
Banks - Regional | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.002m USD | 12M Return: 34.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 18.6M
EPS Trend: -91.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -46.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 8.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE: STEL) is a Houston, Texas-based bank holding company that delivers commercial banking products and services primarily to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individual customers. Its deposit offerings include checking, commercial, money market, savings, and time deposit accounts, supported by telephone, mobile, and online banking channels. The company provides a broad lending portfolio spanning commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans (including multi-family, construction, and land development), residential real estate loans (1-4 family mortgages, home equity loans/lines, and home improvement loans), consumer loans, and factoring services.
Complementary services include safe deposit boxes, debit cards, cash management, wire transfers, night depository, direct deposits, cashiers checks, and letters of credit. The company is classified within the Financials sector under the Regional Banks sub-industry, a segment of U.S. banking that typically concentrates lending and deposit-gathering activities within defined geographic markets. As a bank holding company, Stellar Bancorp operates through subsidiary bank(s) subject to federal and state regulatory oversight, including capital and lending concentration requirements.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- Texas commercial real estate portfolio faces credit quality headwinds
- Houston SMB loan and deposit growth accelerates
| Net Income: 105.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.21 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.17k% < 20% (prev -1.10k%; Δ -66.14% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 119.2m > Net Income 105.1m |
| Net Debt (-1.84b) to EBITDA (159.1m): -11.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (51.1m) vs 12m ago -3.87% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 69.94% > 18% (prev 69.64%; Δ 0.30% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.55% > 50% (prev 5.93%; Δ -0.38% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.77 > 6 (EBIT TTM 130.2m / Interest Expense TTM 169.0m) |
| A: -0.64 (Total Current Assets 2.07b - Total Current Liabilities 8.99b) / Total Assets 10.9b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 585.4m / Total Assets 10.9b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 130.2m / Avg Total Assets 10.7b) |
| D: 0.18 (Book Value of Equity 1.67b / Total Liabilities 9.22b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.72 = D |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 36.6m/37.7m, Revenue 592.0m/618.6m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 69.64% / 69.94%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.80 / AQ_t-1 0.82) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 592.0m / 618.6m) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 105.1m - CFO 119.2m) / TA 10.9b) |
| Beneish M = -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 39.32 with a total of 5,937,845 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.11%, over one month by +4.87%, over three months by +7.26% and over the past year by +34.87%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 38.60 (which is 1.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Stellar Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.20. Therefore, it is recommended to hold STEL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 38 | -3.4% |
P/E Trailing = 19.0874
P/E Forward = 14.881
P/S = 4.7596
P/B = 1.2005
Revenue TTM = 592.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 130.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 159.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 175.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.09m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 189.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 13.7m
Net Debt = -1.84b USD (calculated: Debt 189.0m - CCE 2.03b)
Enterprise Value = 158.8m USD (2.00b + Debt 189.0m - CCE 2.03b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.77 (Ebit TTM 130.2m / Interest Expense TTM 169.0m)
EV/FCF = 1.35x (Enterprise Value 158.8m / FCF TTM 117.7m)
FCF Yield = 74.11% (FCF TTM 117.7m / Enterprise Value 158.8m)
FCF Margin = 19.87% (FCF TTM 117.7m / Revenue TTM 592.0m)
Net Margin = 17.76% (Net Income TTM 105.1m / Revenue TTM 592.0m)
Gross Margin = 69.94% ((Revenue TTM 592.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 178.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.99% (prev 69.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.01 (Enterprise Value 158.8m / Total Assets 10.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 89.39% (Interest Expense 169.0m / Debt 189.0m)
Taxrate = 19.25% (25.1m / 130.2m)
NOPAT = 105.1m (EBIT 130.2m * (1 - 19.25%))
Current Ratio = 0.23 (Total Current Assets 2.07b / Total Current Liabilities 8.99b)
Debt / Equity = 0.11 (Debt 189.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.67b)
Debt / EBITDA = -11.58 (Net Debt -1.84b / EBITDA 159.1m)
Debt / FCF = -15.67 (Net Debt -1.84b / FCF TTM 117.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.99% (Net Income 105.1m / Total Assets 10.9b)
RoE = 6.38% (Net Income TTM 105.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.65b)
RoCE = 7.14% (EBIT 130.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.65b + L.T.Debt 175.3m))
RoIC = 5.61% (NOPAT 105.1m / Invested Capital 1.87b)
WACC = 7.47% (E(2.00b)/V(2.19b) * Re(8.18%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -65.93 | Cagr: -1.87%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈107.0m ; Y1≈122.6m ; Y5≈180.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 89.54 (EV 2.72b - Net Debt -1.84b = Equity 4.56b / Shares 50.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -91.26 | EPS CAGR: -11.28% | SUE: 0.63 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -46.37 | Revenue CAGR: -1.85% | SUE: 0.55 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=-4.97% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=-0.59% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.16 | Chg30d=-0.77% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+8.5% | GrowthRev=+4.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.35 | Chg30d=-0.11% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+8.7% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=3, down=3)