(SU) Suncor Energy - Ratings and Ratios
Bitumen,Crude Oil,Refined Petroleum,Petrochemicals,Natural Gas
SU EPS (Earnings per Share)
SU Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 26.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 42.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.40% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.55 |
| Alpha | 10.18 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.670 |
| Beta | 0.730 |
| Beta Downside | 1.063 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.42% |
| Mean DD | 7.31% |
| Median DD | 6.47% |
Description: SU Suncor Energy September 29, 2025
Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE: SU) is a Canadian-based integrated energy company that operates across three primary segments: Oil Sands, Exploration & Production, and Refining & Marketing. The Oil Sands segment extracts and upgrades bitumen, then transports and sells crude oil, power, and related by-products. The Exploration & Production segment manages offshore assets on Canada’s east coast and on-shore operations in Libya and Syria, while also handling crude marketing and risk management. The Refining & Marketing segment processes crude and intermediate feedstocks into petroleum and petrochemical products, distributes refined fuels to retail customers, and trades crude, refined products, natural gas, and power.
Key performance indicators from the most recent quarter (Q2 2024) show Suncor’s upstream production averaged 770 kbpd of oil-equivalent, with the Oil Sands segment contributing roughly 70 % of total output. The company reported an adjusted earnings-before-interest-tax-depreciation-amortisation (EBITDA) of $6.2 billion, reflecting a 12 % YoY increase driven by higher realized oil prices and operational efficiencies. Suncor’s capital expenditure guidance for 2024 remains at $9-$10 billion, emphasizing continued investment in bitumen capacity expansion and low-carbon technologies.
Sector-wide, Suncor’s results are heavily influenced by global crude price dynamics, particularly the Brent-WTI spread, which has narrowed to its narrowest level in three years, pressuring margins on bitumen upgrades. Additionally, Canadian regulatory developments-such as the federal carbon-pricing framework and pending pipeline approvals-represent material risk factors that could affect both cost structures and market access for the Oil Sands business.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Suncor’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the analytics on ValueRay useful as a next step.
SU Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 51,198m |
| Sub-Industry | Integrated Oil & Gas |
| IPO / Inception | 1993-12-01 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -0.11% |
| Analyst Rating | 3.86 of 5 |
SU Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.67% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 13.46% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 18.10% |
| Payout Consistency | 73.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 38.1% |
SU Growth Ratios
| CAGR 3y | 12.69% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.57 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 1.73 |
| Current Volume | 3319.1k |
| Average Volume | 3319.1k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income (5.26b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.01b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.09 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.65pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 7.17% (prev 10.89%; Δ -3.72pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 (>3.0%) and CFO 13.94b > Net Income 5.26b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (11.51b) to EBITDA (15.15b) ratio: 0.76 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.35 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.21b) change vs 12m ago -4.64% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 42.60% (prev 43.84%; Δ -1.23pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 55.69% (prev 56.22%; Δ -0.53pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 12.11 (EBITDA TTM 15.15b / Interest Expense TTM 641.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.74
| (A) 0.04 = (Total Current Assets 13.93b - Total Current Liabilities 10.34b) / Total Assets 89.47b |
| (B) 0.26 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 23.01b / Total Assets 89.47b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 7.76b / Avg Total Assets 90.07b |
| (D) 1.01 = Book Value of Equity 44.66b / Total Liabilities 44.31b |
| Total Rating: 2.74 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 66.52
| 1. Piotroski 6.50pt = 1.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 9.65% = 4.82 |
| 3. FCF Margin 16.02% = 4.01 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.32 = 2.45 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.76 = 2.07 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.98)% = 3.72 |
| 7. RoE 11.75% = 0.98 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -4.80% = -0.36 |
| 9. EPS Trend -53.31% = -2.67 |
What is the price of SU shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.08%, over one month by +12.70%, over three months by +14.94% and over the past year by +14.50%.
Is Suncor Energy a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of SU is around 46.40 USD . This means that SU is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of 4.6%.
Is SU a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SU price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 42.2 | -4.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 42.2 | -4.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 51.2 | 15.4% |
SU Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025
P/E Trailing = 14.0197
P/E Forward = 17.0358
P/S = 1.0365
P/B = 1.5579
P/EG = 0.07
Beta = 0.793
Revenue TTM = 50.16b CAD
EBIT TTM = 7.76b CAD
EBITDA TTM = 15.15b CAD
Long Term Debt = 9.35b CAD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.04b CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.45b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 11.51b CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 83.29b CAD (71.78b + Debt 14.45b - CCE 2.94b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.11 (Ebit TTM 7.76b / Interest Expense TTM 641.0m)
FCF Yield = 9.65% (FCF TTM 8.04b / Enterprise Value 83.29b)
FCF Margin = 16.02% (FCF TTM 8.04b / Revenue TTM 50.16b)
Net Margin = 10.49% (Net Income TTM 5.26b / Revenue TTM 50.16b)
Gross Margin = 42.60% ((Revenue TTM 50.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 28.79b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 60.29% (prev 40.64%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 83.29b / Total Assets 89.47b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.86% (Interest Expense 124.0m / Debt 14.45b)
Taxrate = 26.97% (598.0m / 2.22b)
NOPAT = 5.67b (EBIT 7.76b * (1 - 26.97%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 13.93b / Total Current Liabilities 10.34b)
Debt / Equity = 0.32 (Debt 14.45b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 45.16b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.76 (Net Debt 11.51b / EBITDA 15.15b)
Debt / FCF = 1.43 (Net Debt 11.51b / FCF TTM 8.04b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 44.77b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.88% (Net Income 5.26b / Total Assets 89.47b)
RoE = 11.75% (Net Income TTM 5.26b / Total Stockholder Equity 44.77b)
RoCE = 14.34% (EBIT 7.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 44.77b + L.T.Debt 9.35b))
RoIC = 10.33% (NOPAT 5.67b / Invested Capital 54.85b)
WACC = 7.36% (E(71.78b)/V(86.23b) * Re(8.71%) + D(14.45b)/V(86.23b) * Rd(0.86%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.30%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.43% ; FCFE base≈8.31b ; Y1≈8.60b ; Y5≈9.77b
Fair Price DCF = 126.5 (DCF Value 151.90b / Shares Outstanding 1.20b; 5y FCF grow 3.57% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -53.31 | EPS CAGR: -17.96% | SUE: -0.23 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -4.80 | Revenue CAGR: -3.69% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for SU Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle