UNP Stock Analysis: Union Pacific | NYSE
Railroads | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 165.319m USD | 12M Return: 22.8% | US9078181081 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 643M
EPS Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 83.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Union Pacific Corporation operates one of the largest freight railroad networks in the United States through its wholly owned subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, transporting a diverse range of commodities across its rail system. Its traffic base spans agricultural products (grain, fertilizers, food and refrigerated goods), energy-related cargo (coal, renewables, petroleum, LPGs), industrial inputs (chemicals, plastics, forest products, metals and ores, soda ash, sand), and finished goods including automobiles, automotive parts, and intermodal containerized merchandise. As a Class I freight railroad, the company benefits from significant barriers to entry created by the high cost and scale of rail infrastructure, and intermodal services-where containers are transferred between rail and truck-represent a key growth segment connecting shippers to the broader logistics network. Founded in 1862 and headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, Union Pacific is a long-established operator within the North American rail industry.
- Intermodal volumes rise with US import demand and consumer spending
- Operating ratio improvement drives margin expansion and earnings growth
- Coal volume declines persist amid utility fuel switching to natural gas
| Net Income: 7.33b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.31% < 20% (prev -9.30%; Δ 8.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 10.3b > Net Income 7.33b |
| Net Debt (29.9b) to EBITDA (13.3b): 2.24 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.99 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (594.0m) vs 12m ago -0.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 45.53% > 18% (prev 45.68%; Δ -0.16% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 36.36% > 50% (prev 35.57%; Δ 0.78% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.40 > 6 (EBIT TTM 10.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.28b) |
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 5.53b - Total Current Liabilities 5.61b) / Total Assets 71.2b |
| B: 1.01 (Retained Earnings 71.6b / Total Assets 71.2b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 10.8b / Avg Total Assets 69.9b) |
| D: 0.41 (Book Value of Equity 20.7b / Total Liabilities 50.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.74 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 2.13b/1.92b, Revenue 25.4b/24.4b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 45.68% / 45.53%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 25.4b / 24.4b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 7.33b - CFO 10.3b) / TA 71.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 278.34 with a total of 1,362,795 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.02%, over one month by -2.25%, over three months by -1.90% and over the past year by +22.75%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 272.30 (which is 2.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Union Pacific has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.28. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UNP.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 328.9 | 18.2% |
P/E Trailing = 22.4964
P/E Forward = 19.3424
P/S = 6.5061
P/B = 7.8857
P/EG = 2.7237
Revenue TTM = 25.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 13.3b USD
Long Term Debt = 29.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.52b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 32.0b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 842.0m
Net Debt = 29.9b USD (calculated: Debt 32.0b - CCE 2.11b)
Enterprise Value = 195b USD (165b + Debt 32.0b - CCE 2.11b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.40 (Ebit TTM 10.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.28b)
EV/FCF = 30.01x (Enterprise Value 195b / FCF TTM 6.50b)
FCF Yield = 3.33% (FCF TTM 6.50b / Enterprise Value 195b)
FCF Margin = 25.60% (FCF TTM 6.50b / Revenue TTM 25.4b)
Net Margin = 28.85% (Net Income TTM 7.33b / Revenue TTM 25.4b)
Gross Margin = 45.53% ((Revenue TTM 25.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.8b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.53% (prev 45.21%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.74 (Enterprise Value 195b / Total Assets 71.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.01% (Interest Expense 1.28b / Debt 32.0b)
Taxrate = 22.92% (2.18b / 9.51b)
NOPAT = 8.32b (EBIT 10.8b * (1 - 22.92%))
Current Ratio = 0.99 (Total Current Assets 5.53b / Total Current Liabilities 5.61b)
Debt / Equity = 1.55 (Debt 32.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 20.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.24 (Net Debt 29.9b / EBITDA 13.3b)
Debt / FCF = 4.60 (Net Debt 29.9b / FCF TTM 6.50b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.49% (Net Income 7.33b / Total Assets 71.2b)
RoE = 38.65% (Net Income TTM 7.33b / Total Stockholder Equity 19.0b)
RoCE = 22.49% (EBIT 10.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 19.0b + L.T.Debt 29.0b))
RoIC = 12.64% (NOPAT 8.32b / Invested Capital 65.8b)
WACC = 6.77% (E(165b)/V(197b) * Re(7.48%) + D(32.0b)/V(197b) * Rd(4.01%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 7.48% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.18 | Cagr: -1.19%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.94% ; FCFF base≈6.41b ; Y1≈6.64b ; Y5≈7.50b
[DCF] Fair Price = 144.6 (EV 116b - Net Debt 29.9b = Equity 85.9b / Shares 594.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 3.88% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.03 | EPS CAGR: 6.72% | SUE: 2.69 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 83.61 | Revenue CAGR: 1.40% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.44 | Chg30d=-0.18% | Revisions=+77% | Analysts=22
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.05 | Chg30d=-0.00% | Revisions=+88% | GrowthEPS=+11.9% | GrowthRev=+9.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.19 | Chg30d=+0.22% | Revisions=+88% | GrowthEPS=+8.7% | GrowthRev=+4.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +93% (up=63, down=1)