VLO Stock Analysis: Valero Energy | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 79.507m USD | 12M Return: 93.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 796M
EPS Trend: -73.6%
Qual. Beats: 6
Rev. Trend: -95.2%
Qual. Beats: 5
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) is a U.S.-headquartered downstream energy company that manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon transportation fuels and petrochemical products across the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and other international markets. The company operates through three business segments-Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol-producing a broad slate of gasoline blendstocks (including CARBOB and CBOB), CARB diesel, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, and intermediate oils, as well as aromatics and crude oils. Refined products are distributed through wholesale rack and bulk channels and branded retail outlets operated under multiple regional banners, including Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco. Beyond refining, Valero owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol production assets, marketing renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand, while ethanol co-products such as dry distillers grains, corn syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil are sold to animal feed customers. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in San Antonio, Texas, having been renamed Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997.
The business model sits within the GICS Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry, the downstream segment of the energy value chain, where profitability is driven primarily by refining margins (often measured by crack spreads) between finished fuel prices and crude oil feedstock costs. Valeros inclusion of dedicated Renewable Diesel and Ethanol segments reflects the industrys exposure to biofuel blending programs such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which mandate and incentivize low-carbon fuel production and blending into the conventional fuel supply.
- Refining margins surge as crack spreads widen on gasoline and diesel
- Renewable diesel segment scales as Diamond Green Diesel capacity expands
- Capital returns expand with dividend growth and active share buyback program
| Net Income: 4.21b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.06% < 20% (prev 6.58%; Δ 1.48% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 6.26b > Net Income 4.21b |
| Net Debt (6.84b) to EBITDA (9.11b): 0.75 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.58 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (298.0m) vs 12m ago -5.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.23% > 18% (prev 2.56%; Δ 4.67% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 208.0% > 50% (prev 216.9%; Δ -8.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.63 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.94b / Interest Expense TTM 559.0m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 27.8b - Total Current Liabilities 17.7b) / Total Assets 62.1b |
| B: 0.79 (Retained Earnings 48.9b / Total Assets 62.1b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 5.94b / Avg Total Assets 60.7b) |
| D: 0.68 (Book Value of Equity 23.9b / Total Liabilities 35.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.01 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.21 (Receivables 13.4b/11.2b, Revenue 126b/128b) |
| GMI: 0.35 (GM 2.56% / 7.23%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 126b / 128b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 4.21b - CFO 6.26b) / TA 62.1b) |
| Beneish M = -3.47 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 280.69 with a total of 1,911,745 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.38%, over one month by +10.82%, over three months by +20.20% and over the past year by +93.50%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 267.30 (which is 4.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Valero Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.29. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VLO.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 265.7 | -5.3% |
P/E Trailing = 19.5731
P/E Forward = 9.5785
P/S = 0.6747
P/B = 3.3517
P/EG = 4.0843
Revenue TTM = 126b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.94b USD
EBITDA TTM = 9.11b USD
Long Term Debt = 10.5b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.03b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.6b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.08b
Net Debt = 6.84b USD (calculated: Debt 12.6b - CCE 5.73b)
Enterprise Value = 86.3b USD (79.5b + Debt 12.6b - CCE 5.73b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.63 (Ebit TTM 5.94b / Interest Expense TTM 559.0m)
EV/FCF = 14.57x (Enterprise Value 86.3b / FCF TTM 5.93b)
FCF Yield = 6.86% (FCF TTM 5.93b / Enterprise Value 86.3b)
FCF Margin = 4.70% (FCF TTM 5.93b / Revenue TTM 126b)
Net Margin = 3.33% (Net Income TTM 4.21b / Revenue TTM 126b)
Gross Margin = 7.23% ((Revenue TTM 126b - Cost of Revenue TTM 117b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.89% (prev 10.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.39 (Enterprise Value 86.3b / Total Assets 62.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.45% (Interest Expense 559.0m / Debt 12.6b)
Taxrate = 25.24% (1.43b / 5.64b)
NOPAT = 4.44b (EBIT 5.94b * (1 - 25.24%))
Current Ratio = 1.58 (Total Current Assets 27.8b / Total Current Liabilities 17.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.53 (Debt 12.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.9b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.75 (Net Debt 6.84b / EBITDA 9.11b)
Debt / FCF = 1.15 (Net Debt 6.84b / FCF TTM 5.93b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 23.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.93% (Net Income 4.21b / Total Assets 62.1b)
RoE = 17.63% (Net Income TTM 4.21b / Total Stockholder Equity 23.9b)
RoCE = 17.31% (EBIT 5.94b / Capital Employed (Equity 23.9b + L.T.Debt 10.5b))
RoIC = 11.16% (NOPAT 4.44b / Invested Capital 39.8b)
WACC = 7.78% (E(79.5b)/V(92.1b) * Re(8.49%) + D(12.6b)/V(92.1b) * Rd(4.45%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -5.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈5.40b ; Y1≈6.19b ; Y5≈9.11b
[DCF] Fair Price = 438.6 (EV 137b - Net Debt 6.84b = Equity 130b / Shares 296.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -73.63 | EPS CAGR: -40.06% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 6
Revenue Correlation: -95.18 | Revenue CAGR: -8.36% | SUE: 1.73 | # QB: 5
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=10.25 | Chg30d=+2.14% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=17
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=9.90 | Chg30d=+12.67% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=30.83 | Chg30d=+5.33% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+190.5% | GrowthRev=+9.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=21.54 | Chg30d=+2.49% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=-30.1% | GrowthRev=-7.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +69% (up=12, down=1)