VLO Stock Analysis: Valero Energy | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 96.620m USD | 12M Return: 120.7% | US91913Y1001 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 1.19B
EPS Trend: 11.0%
Qual. Beats: 8
Rev. Trend: -33.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Valero Energy Corporation is a major energy manufacturer that produces, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels along with petrochemical products across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, and Peru, as well as other international markets. The company operates through three core business segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. Valero sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets under several brands, including Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco.
Beyond traditional refining, Valero has expanded into renewable energy through its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, producing renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel, while its ethanol segment yields co-products such as dry distillers grains, corn oil, and syrup sold to animal feed customers. As a large-cap player in the GICS Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry, Valero ranks among the largest independent refiners in the United States, a sector where operators typically generate margins from the spread between crude oil input costs and refined product output prices.
Founded in 1980 and headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, Valero was originally known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company before adopting its current name in August 1997. The company went public on the NYSE in early 1982 and remains one of the most prominent names in U.S. fuel manufacturing, with a diversified product portfolio spanning gasoline blendstocks (CARBOB and CBOB), CARB diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, aromatics, and various crude oils.
- Refining crack spreads widen on tight distillate inventories
- Renewable diesel margins compress amid EPA credit price decline
- Ethanol segment profitability pressured by oversupply and weaker gasoline demand
| Net Income: 12.9b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.60% < 20% (prev 7.13%; Δ 2.47% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.23 > 3% & CFO 16.0b > Net Income 12.9b |
| Net Debt (2.25b) to EBITDA (20.9b): 0.11 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.72 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (285.0m) vs 12m ago -7.77% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 15.46% > 18% (prev 3.33%; Δ 12.13% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 232.1% > 50% (prev 210.0%; Δ 22.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 31.60 > 6 (EBIT TTM 17.8b / Interest Expense TTM 563.0m) |
| A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 33.6b - Total Current Liabilities 19.5b) / Total Assets 68.0b |
| B: 0.86 (Retained Earnings 58.7b / Total Assets 68.0b) |
| C: 0.28 (EBIT TTM 17.8b / Avg Total Assets 63.3b) |
| D: 0.76 (Book Value of Equity 28.0b / Total Liabilities 36.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.86 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 14.7b/10.3b, Revenue 147b/123b) |
| GMI: 0.22 (GM 3.33% / 15.46%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.13) |
| SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 147b / 123b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 12.9b - CFO 16.0b) / TA 68.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.52 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of November 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 379.83 with a total of 2,180,817 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.63%, over one month by -16.79%, over three months by +10.76% and over the past year by +120.66%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 354.70 (which is 6.6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Valero Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VLO.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 427 | 12.4% |
P/E Trailing = 7.8792
P/E Forward = 6.8823
P/S = 0.6594
P/B = 3.4539
P/EG = 1.2488
Revenue TTM = 147b USD
EBIT TTM = 17.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 20.9b USD
Long Term Debt = 10.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 989.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.08b
Net Debt = 2.25b USD (calculated: Debt 12.1b - CCE 9.84b)
Enterprise Value = 98.9b USD (96.6b + Debt 12.1b - CCE 9.84b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 31.60 (Ebit TTM 17.8b / Interest Expense TTM 563.0m)
EV/FCF = 6.56x (Enterprise Value 98.9b / FCF TTM 15.1b)
FCF Yield = 15.25% (FCF TTM 15.1b / Enterprise Value 98.9b)
FCF Margin = 10.27% (FCF TTM 15.1b / Revenue TTM 147b)
Net Margin = 8.81% (Net Income TTM 12.9b / Revenue TTM 147b)
Gross Margin = 15.46% ((Revenue TTM 147b - Cost of Revenue TTM 124b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.41% (prev 19.50%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 98.9b / Total Assets 68.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.66% (Interest Expense 563.0m / Debt 12.1b)
Taxrate = 22.42% (3.92b / 17.5b)
NOPAT = 13.8b (EBIT 17.8b * (1 - 22.42%))
Current Ratio = 1.72 (Total Current Assets 33.6b / Total Current Liabilities 19.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 12.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 28.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.11 (Net Debt 2.25b / EBITDA 20.9b)
Debt / FCF = 0.15 (Net Debt 2.25b / FCF TTM 15.1b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 25.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.46% (Net Income 12.9b / Total Assets 68.0b)
RoE = 51.49% (Net Income TTM 12.9b / Total Stockholder Equity 25.1b)
RoCE = 50.61% (EBIT 17.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 25.1b + L.T.Debt 10.0b))
RoIC = 32.76% (NOPAT 13.8b / Invested Capital 42.1b)
WACC = 7.15% (E(96.6b)/V(109b) * Re(7.59%) + D(12.1b)/V(109b) * Rd(4.66%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 7.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -97.80 | Cagr: -5.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈10.6b ; Y1≈12.2b ; Y5≈17.9b
[DCF] Fair Price = 959.7 (EV 270b - Net Debt 2.25b = Equity 268b / Shares 278.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 11.00 | EPS CAGR: 8.48% | SUE: 3.34 | # QB: 8
Revenue Correlation: -33.24 | Revenue CAGR: -2.28% | SUE: 2.69 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=14.44 | Chg30d=+56.71% | Revisions=+53% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=59.81 | Chg30d=+24.74% | Revisions=+84% | GrowthEPS=+463.7% | GrowthRev=+33.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=53.49 | Chg30d=+36.28% | Revisions=+63% | GrowthEPS=-10.6% | GrowthRev=-12.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +77% (up=40, down=4)