VLO Stock Analysis: Valero Energy | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 124.889m USD | 12M Return: 190.4% | US91913Y1001 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 1.29B
EPS Trend: -39.5%
Qual. Beats: 7
Rev. Trend: -82.7%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Valero Energy Corporation is a major energy manufacturer that produces, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels along with petrochemical products across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, and Peru, as well as other international markets. The company operates through three core business segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. Valero sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets under several brands, including Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco.
Beyond traditional refining, Valero has expanded into renewable energy through its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, producing renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel, while its ethanol segment yields co-products such as dry distillers grains, corn oil, and syrup sold to animal feed customers. As a large-cap player in the GICS Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry, Valero ranks among the largest independent refiners in the United States, a sector where operators typically generate margins from the spread between crude oil input costs and refined product output prices.
Founded in 1980 and headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, Valero was originally known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company before adopting its current name in August 1997. The company went public on the NYSE in early 1982 and remains one of the most prominent names in U.S. fuel manufacturing, with a diversified product portfolio spanning gasoline blendstocks (CARBOB and CBOB), CARB diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, aromatics, and various crude oils.
- Refining crack spreads widen on tight distillate inventories
- Renewable diesel margins compress amid EPA credit price decline
- Ethanol segment profitability pressured by oversupply and weaker gasoline demand
| Net Income: 7.21b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.97% < 20% (prev 7.37%; Δ 1.60% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 10.9b > Net Income 7.21b |
| Net Debt (4.56b) to EBITDA (13.4b): 0.34 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.64 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (294.0m) vs 12m ago -5.77% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.32% > 18% (prev 2.49%; Δ 8.83% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 214.2% > 50% (prev 208.3%; Δ 5.97% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 18.25 > 6 (EBIT TTM 10.2b / Interest Expense TTM 558.0m) |
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 30.7b - Total Current Liabilities 18.7b) / Total Assets 64.7b |
| B: 0.77 (Retained Earnings 50.0b / Total Assets 64.7b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 10.2b / Avg Total Assets 62.0b) |
| D: 0.69 (Book Value of Equity 25.0b / Total Liabilities 36.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.56 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 13.9b/11.1b, Revenue 133b/124b) |
| GMI: 0.22 (GM 2.49% / 11.32%) |
| AQI: 0.75 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 133b / 124b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 7.21b - CFO 10.9b) / TA 64.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.70 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 444.71 with a total of 1,922,092 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.53%, over one month by +10.27%, over three months by +48.68% and over the past year by +190.39%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 422.70 (which is 4.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Valero Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.55. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VLO.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 380 | -14.6% |
P/E Trailing = 18.0805
P/E Forward = 10.1937
P/S = 0.9431
P/B = 4.3284
P/EG = 1.8505
Revenue TTM = 133b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.2b USD
EBITDA TTM = 13.4b USD
Long Term Debt = 10.4b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 927.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.08b
Net Debt = 4.56b USD (calculated: Debt 12.4b - CCE 7.87b)
Enterprise Value = 129b USD (125b + Debt 12.4b - CCE 7.87b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.25 (Ebit TTM 10.2b / Interest Expense TTM 558.0m)
EV/FCF = 12.79x (Enterprise Value 129b / FCF TTM 10.1b)
FCF Yield = 7.82% (FCF TTM 10.1b / Enterprise Value 129b)
FCF Margin = 7.61% (FCF TTM 10.1b / Revenue TTM 133b)
Net Margin = 5.43% (Net Income TTM 7.21b / Revenue TTM 133b)
Gross Margin = 11.32% ((Revenue TTM 133b - Cost of Revenue TTM 118b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.50% (prev 8.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.00 (Enterprise Value 129b / Total Assets 64.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.49% (Interest Expense 558.0m / Debt 12.4b)
Taxrate = 22.70% (2.24b / 9.87b)
NOPAT = 7.87b (EBIT 10.2b * (1 - 22.70%))
Current Ratio = 1.64 (Total Current Assets 30.7b / Total Current Liabilities 18.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.50 (Debt 12.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 25.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.34 (Net Debt 4.56b / EBITDA 13.4b)
Debt / FCF = 0.45 (Net Debt 4.56b / FCF TTM 10.1b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 24.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.62% (Net Income 7.21b / Total Assets 64.7b)
RoE = 29.94% (Net Income TTM 7.21b / Total Stockholder Equity 24.1b)
RoCE = 29.51% (EBIT 10.2b / Capital Employed (Equity 24.1b + L.T.Debt 10.4b))
RoIC = 19.59% (NOPAT 7.87b / Invested Capital 40.2b)
WACC = 7.64% (E(125b)/V(137b) * Re(8.05%) + D(12.4b)/V(137b) * Rd(4.49%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.62 | Cagr: -5.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈7.41b ; Y1≈8.49b ; Y5≈12.5b
[DCF] Fair Price = 637.4 (EV 188b - Net Debt 4.56b = Equity 184b / Shares 287.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -39.50 | EPS CAGR: -23.33% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 7
Revenue Correlation: -82.73 | Revenue CAGR: -5.98% | SUE: -1.73 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=20.26 | Chg30d=+23.61% | Revisions=+75% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=50.19 | Chg30d=+16.52% | Revisions=+77% | GrowthEPS=+373.0% | GrowthRev=+24.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=42.27 | Chg30d=+37.88% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=-15.8% | GrowthRev=-12.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +84% (up=28, down=1)