(VLO) Valero Energy - Overview
Stock: Gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel, Petrochemicals, Renewable fuels
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.95% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.55% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 3.62% |
| Payout Consistency | 32.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 43.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.30% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.24 |
| Alpha | 32.77 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.004 |
| Beta Downside | 1.555 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 41.22% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.41 |
Description: VLO Valero Energy January 29, 2026
Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) refines and markets petroleum-based and low-carbon fuels across North America, Europe, and Latin America, operating through three segments-Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. Its product slate includes CARBOB/CBOB gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, asphalt, and a suite of renewable fuels sold under the Diamond Green Diesel brand, as well as ethanol co-products for animal feed.
Key recent metrics (Q4 2025/2024 FY):
• Refining margin averaged $15.5 /bbl, up 12 % YoY, driven by higher crack spreads and stable crude input costs (≈ $85 /bbl WTI).
• Renewable diesel capacity now stands at ~1.2 million bpd, reflecting a 25 % expansion completed in 2024, positioning Valero to capture a growing share of the U.S. Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) market.
• Ethanol output remains ~1.0 million bpd, with dry distillers grains shipments exceeding 2 million tons in FY 2024, supporting diversified cash flow amid volatile gasoline demand.
Assumption: figures are taken from Valero’s latest Form 10-K and earnings releases; exact Q4 2025 numbers may be revised in subsequent filings, introducing modest uncertainty to margin forecasts.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of Valero’s valuation dynamics-especially how its renewable diesel margin compares to peers-consider exploring the analytical tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 2.35b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.83 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 26.92% < 20% (prev 6.35%; Δ 20.58% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 4.84b > Net Income 2.35b |
| Net Debt (5.93b) to EBITDA (6.58b): 0.90 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.37 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (303.0m) vs 12m ago -4.11% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 5.43% > 18% (prev 0.04%; Δ 539.6% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 230.5% > 50% (prev 216.0%; Δ 14.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.40 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 6.58b / Interest Expense TTM 556.0m) |
Altman Z'' 9.34
| A: 0.70 (Total Current Assets 47.50b - Total Current Liabilities 14.11b) / Total Assets 47.50b |
| B: 0.99 (Retained Earnings 47.17b / Total Assets 47.50b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 3.56b / Avg Total Assets 53.82b) |
| D: 1.00 (Book Value of Equity 23.73b / Total Liabilities 23.78b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 9.34 = AAA |
What is the price of VLO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.40%, over one month by +14.39%, over three months by +16.59% and over the past year by +55.36%.
Is VLO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the VLO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 197 | -2.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 197 | -2.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 251.9 | 24.3% |
VLO Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 15.6006
P/S = 0.4916
P/B = 2.5379
P/EG = 3.4884
Revenue TTM = 124.05b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.56b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.58b USD
Long Term Debt = 9.69b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 949.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.62b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.93b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 66.24b USD (60.31b + Debt 10.62b - CCE 4.69b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.40 (Ebit TTM 3.56b / Interest Expense TTM 556.0m)
EV/FCF = 15.20x (Enterprise Value 66.24b / FCF TTM 4.36b)
FCF Yield = 6.58% (FCF TTM 4.36b / Enterprise Value 66.24b)
FCF Margin = 3.51% (FCF TTM 4.36b / Revenue TTM 124.05b)
Net Margin = 1.89% (Net Income TTM 2.35b / Revenue TTM 124.05b)
Gross Margin = 5.43% ((Revenue TTM 124.05b - Cost of Revenue TTM 117.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.28% (prev 5.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.39 (Enterprise Value 66.24b / Total Assets 47.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.31% (Interest Expense 139.0m / Debt 10.62b)
Taxrate = 23.29% (355.0m / 1.52b)
NOPAT = 2.73b (EBIT 3.56b * (1 - 23.29%))
Current Ratio = 3.37 (Total Current Assets 47.50b / Total Current Liabilities 14.11b)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 10.62b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.90 (Net Debt 5.93b / EBITDA 6.58b)
Debt / FCF = 1.36 (Net Debt 5.93b / FCF TTM 4.36b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 23.76b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.36% (Net Income 2.35b / Total Assets 47.50b)
RoE = 9.88% (Net Income TTM 2.35b / Total Stockholder Equity 23.76b)
RoCE = 10.65% (EBIT 3.56b / Capital Employed (Equity 23.76b + L.T.Debt 9.69b))
RoIC = 7.92% (NOPAT 2.73b / Invested Capital 34.47b)
WACC = 8.32% (E(60.31b)/V(70.93b) * Re(9.61%) + D(10.62b)/V(70.93b) * Rd(1.31%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.32%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.54% ; FCFF base≈4.62b ; Y1≈3.61b ; Y5≈2.32b
Fair Price DCF = 114.3 (EV 40.79b - Net Debt 5.93b = Equity 34.85b / Shares 305.0m; r=8.32% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -26.19% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -57.09 | EPS CAGR: 14.35% | SUE: 2.75 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: -83.75 | Revenue CAGR: -5.05% | SUE: 1.25 | # QB: 4
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.63 | Chg30d=-1.011 | Revisions Net=-8 | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.15 | Chg30d=-0.439 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=+14.6% | Growth Revenue=-11.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.70 | Chg30d=-0.310 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+4.5% | Growth Revenue=+4.2%