(VLO) Valero Energy - Ratings and Ratios
Gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel, Renewable Diesel, Ethanol
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.50% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 9.37% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 2.22% |
| Payout Consistency | 29.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 58.6% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 51.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.37% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.87 |
| Alpha | 18.83 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.44 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.496 |
| Beta | 0.975 |
| Beta Downside | 1.490 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 41.22% |
| Mean DD | 15.78% |
| Median DD | 15.32% |
Description: VLO Valero Energy September 29, 2025
Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is a vertically integrated producer of petroleum-based and low-carbon transportation fuels and petrochemicals, operating in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Ireland, Latin America, Mexico and Peru. Its business is organized into three segments-Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol-allowing it to capture value across traditional hydrocarbon markets and emerging biofuel streams.
In the Refining segment, Valero processes crude into a broad slate of products, including CARBOB and CBOB gasoline blendstocks, CARB diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, asphalt, aromatics, and residual fuel oil. The company distributes these outputs through wholesale rack and bulk channels and retail outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar and Texaco brands.
The Renewable Diesel segment centers on the Diamond Green Diesel brand, producing renewable diesel and naphtha from feedstocks such as waste fats and greases. As of Q2 2024, Valero’s renewable-diesel capacity stood at roughly 1.1 million barrels per day, positioning it among the top U.S. producers and providing a hedge against tightening low-carbon fuel mandates.
Valero’s Ethanol segment operates multiple plants that generate fuel-grade ethanol and co-products (dry distiller grains, syrup, inedible corn oil) for animal-feed markets. In 2023, ethanol production averaged 1.6 billion gallons, supporting the company’s diversification into higher-margin, demand-elastic agricultural commodities.
Key financial and operational drivers to watch include: (1) refining margins, which averaged $13.5 per barrel in Q2 2024-well above the 5-year historical mean-reflecting a favorable crack spread; (2) the company’s adjusted EPS of $2.38 in the same quarter, indicating strong earnings resilience despite volatile crude prices; and (3) the ongoing rollout of low-carbon fuel credits under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which could add $0.30–$0.45 per gallon to renewable diesel economics.
Sector-wide, Valero’s performance is tightly linked to crude-oil price volatility, the pace of diesel demand recovery in North America, and regulatory pressure to decarbonize transportation fuels-factors that together shape both margin upside and capital-allocation decisions.
For a deeper quantitative view of Valero’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a granular, data-driven dashboard you may find useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (1.47b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 7.38b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.88pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 7.13% (prev 6.45%; Δ 0.68pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 4.84b > Net Income 1.47b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (5.82b) to EBITDA (5.38b) ratio: 1.08 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.60 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (309.0m) change vs 12m ago -2.83% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 3.34% (prev 4.46%; Δ -1.13pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 206.8% (prev 222.8%; Δ -15.97pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.27 (EBITDA TTM 5.38b / Interest Expense TTM 552.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.40
| (A) 0.15 = (Total Current Assets 23.50b - Total Current Liabilities 14.73b) / Total Assets 58.62b |
| (B) 0.80 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 47.17b / Total Assets 58.62b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: 0.80 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.04 = EBIT TTM 2.36b / Avg Total Assets 59.50b |
| (D) 1.46 = Book Value of Equity 46.47b / Total Liabilities 31.87b |
| Total Rating: 5.40 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 45.97
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.87% |
| 3. FCF Margin 3.54% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.45 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.08 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -3.15)% |
| 7. RoE 6.12% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -76.93% |
| 9. EPS Trend -54.25% |
What is the price of VLO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.54%, over one month by +5.87%, over three months by +17.76% and over the past year by +32.89%.
Is VLO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 10
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the VLO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 183.1 | 1.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 183.1 | 1.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 217.2 | 20.3% |
VLO Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 38.471
P/E Forward = 15.748
P/S = 0.4942
P/B = 2.2907
P/EG = 4.1657
Beta = 0.761
Revenue TTM = 123.07b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.36b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.38b USD
Long Term Debt = 9.69b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 894.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.58b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.82b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 63.42b USD (57.60b + Debt 10.58b - CCE 4.76b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.27 (Ebit TTM 2.36b / Interest Expense TTM 552.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.87% (FCF TTM 4.36b / Enterprise Value 63.42b)
FCF Margin = 3.54% (FCF TTM 4.36b / Revenue TTM 123.07b)
Net Margin = 1.19% (Net Income TTM 1.47b / Revenue TTM 123.07b)
Gross Margin = 3.34% ((Revenue TTM 123.07b - Cost of Revenue TTM 118.96b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 5.51% (prev 4.09%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.08 (Enterprise Value 63.42b / Total Assets 58.62b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.31% (Interest Expense 139.0m / Debt 10.58b)
Taxrate = 24.79% (361.0m / 1.46b)
NOPAT = 1.77b (EBIT 2.36b * (1 - 24.79%))
Current Ratio = 1.60 (Total Current Assets 23.50b / Total Current Liabilities 14.73b)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 10.58b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.75b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.08 (Net Debt 5.82b / EBITDA 5.38b)
Debt / FCF = 1.33 (Net Debt 5.82b / FCF TTM 4.36b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 23.96b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.50% (Net Income 1.47b / Total Assets 58.62b)
RoE = 6.12% (Net Income TTM 1.47b / Total Stockholder Equity 23.96b)
RoCE = 7.00% (EBIT 2.36b / Capital Employed (Equity 23.96b + L.T.Debt 9.69b))
RoIC = 5.12% (NOPAT 1.77b / Invested Capital 34.59b)
WACC = 8.27% (E(57.60b)/V(68.19b) * Re(9.61%) + D(10.58b)/V(68.19b) * Rd(1.31%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.39%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 67.86% ; FCFE base≈4.62b ; Y1≈3.61b ; Y5≈2.33b
Fair Price DCF = 110.9 (DCF Value 33.82b / Shares Outstanding 305.0m; 5y FCF grow -26.19% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -54.25 | EPS CAGR: 11.06% | SUE: 2.40 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: -76.93 | Revenue CAGR: -2.89% | SUE: 2.16 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.55 | Chg30d=+0.436 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=14
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.28 | Chg30d=+0.749 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+27.4% | Growth Revenue=-8.6%
Additional Sources for VLO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle