KEL Stock Analysis: Kelt Exploration | TO
Oil & Gas E&P | TO, Canada | Market Cap: 2.143m CAD | 12M Return: 49.2% | CA4882951060 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 9.22M
EPS Trend: -73.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 49.7%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.8 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Kelt Exploration Ltd. is a Calgary-based Canadian oil and gas exploration and production company, incorporated in 2012. It explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas, primarily in Northwestern Alberta and Northeastern British Columbia.
As an exploration and production business, Kelt’s activities span finding resources through producing hydrocarbons for sale. Its results are exposed to changes in oil and natural gas prices.
- Condensate pricing and liquids mix drive realized revenue
- AECO and regional gas prices shape cash flow
- Drilling pace and capital allocation determine production growth
| Net Income: 57.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.97 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -9.53% < 20% (prev -2.71%; Δ -6.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 311.2m > Net Income 57.0m |
| Net Debt (186.4m) to EBITDA (289.6m): 0.64 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.64 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (206.0m) vs 12m ago 1.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 22.64% > 18% (prev 27.42%; Δ -4.79% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 35.55% > 50% (prev 30.65%; Δ 4.90% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.87 > 6 (EBIT TTM 73.2m / Interest Expense TTM 12.5m) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 99.3m - Total Current Liabilities 155.5m) / Total Assets 1.75b |
| B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -5.95m / Total Assets 1.75b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 73.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.66b) |
| D: 2.15 (Book Value of Equity 1.20b / Total Liabilities 556.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.34 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.34 (Receivables 78.1m/47.1m, Revenue 589.7m/479.0m) |
| GMI: 1.21 (GM 27.42% / 22.64%) |
| AQI: 9.35 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.23 (Revenue 589.7m / 479.0m) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI 57.0m - CFO 311.2m) / TA 1.75b) |
| Beneish M = 2.55 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of November 14, 2026, the stock is trading at CAD 11.49 with a total of 2,048,200 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +14.79%, over one month by +2.50%, over three months by +21.33% and over the past year by +49.22%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.80 (which is 6% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Kelt Exploration has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 39.1111
P/E Forward = 15.9236
P/S = 3.6989
P/B = 1.7534
Revenue TTM = 589.7m CAD
EBIT TTM = 73.2m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 289.6m CAD
Long Term Debt = 187.0m CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 637k CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 188.9m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 940k
Net Debt = 186.4m CAD (calculated: Debt 188.9m - CCE 2.53m)
Enterprise Value = 2.33b CAD (2.14b + Debt 188.9m - CCE 2.53m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.87 (Ebit TTM 73.2m / Interest Expense TTM 12.5m)
EV/FCF = -31.94x (Enterprise Value 2.33b / FCF TTM -72.9m)
FCF Yield = -3.13% (FCF TTM -72.9m / Enterprise Value 2.33b)
FCF Margin = -12.37% (FCF TTM -72.9m / Revenue TTM 589.7m)
Net Margin = 9.66% (Net Income TTM 57.0m / Revenue TTM 589.7m)
Gross Margin = 22.64% ((Revenue TTM 589.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 456.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.42% (prev 23.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.33 (Enterprise Value 2.33b / Total Assets 1.75b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.60% (Interest Expense 12.5m / Debt 188.9m)
Taxrate = 25.33% (19.3m / 76.3m)
NOPAT = 54.7m (EBIT 73.2m * (1 - 25.33%))
Current Ratio = 0.64 (Total Current Assets 99.3m / Total Current Liabilities 155.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.16 (Debt 188.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.64 (Net Debt 186.4m / EBITDA 289.6m)
Debt / FCF = -2.55 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 186.4m / FCF TTM -72.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.15b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.44% (Net Income 57.0m / Total Assets 1.75b)
RoE = 4.95% (Net Income TTM 57.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.15b)
RoCE = 5.47% (EBIT 73.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.15b + L.T.Debt 187.0m))
RoIC = 3.42% (NOPAT 54.7m / Invested Capital 1.60b)
WACC = 6.12% (E(2.14b)/V(2.33b) * Re(6.23%) + D(188.9m)/V(2.33b) * Rd(6.60%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 96.71 | Cagr: 1.71%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -72.9m)
EPS Correlation: -72.97 | EPS CAGR: -21.41% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 49.73 | Revenue CAGR: 5.81% | SUE: 2.36 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.13 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.61 | Chg30d=+1.12% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+95.7% | GrowthRev=+62.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.87 | Chg30d=-7.14% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+42.9% | GrowthRev=+8.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=0, down=2)